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The National Drought Group has announced that the majority of England is currently experiencing a flash drought, a condition characterized by its rapid onset due to a combination of extremely low rainfall and elevated temperatures. This situation has escalated particularly in Yorkshire and the north-east of England, which have been designated as experiencing “prolonged dry weather”—the stage that precedes an official drought declaration. Notably, there are no areas in England currently classified under a normal weather status.
Amid ongoing hot weather, the UK Health Security Agency has issued amber heat health alerts covering all regions of England except the North East, effective from Tuesday morning until Friday evening. This alert signals the likelihood of significant impacts on health and social care services stemming from the sustained high temperatures. The persistent heat and dryness have also heightened the risk of wildfires, with firefighters actively combating a large blaze in the New Forest, which covers an estimated area equivalent to 140 football pitches, or around 247 acres. Meanwhile, drought conditions have not affected Scotland or Northern Ireland, where periods of heavy rainfall are anticipated in the coming week. Scotland, although not declaring droughts, monitors water scarcity levels, with some eastern regions still categorized under “moderate” or “significant” scarcity despite recent rain.
July marked an unprecedented dry spell for parts of England and Wales, recording the driest month since 1836, with southern England experiencing its driest July ever documented. The south-east received merely 1% of its average rainfall for the month, and certain areas such as Hampshire, the Isle of Wight, and West Sussex have gone 59 consecutive days without measurable rain. Water resources across England are under considerable strain according to the National Drought Group. Farmers have faced reduced crop yields, with the National Farmers Union (NFU) warning that continued drought could result in food shortages. NFU President Tom Bradshaw described this year’s wheat and oats yields as “very, very poor” and noted that livestock farmers have resorted to using winter feed due to insufficient grass growth. In response, Water Minister Emma Hardy highlighted efforts to facilitate farmers’ construction of on-site irrigation reservoirs for water storage.
Water levels in England’s rivers and reservoirs continue to decline sharply, with only 14% of rivers at normal levels while 22% are categorized as exceptionally low, including rivers such as the Avon in the south-west and the Ely Ouse in the east. The Environment Agency has issued warnings about potential navigation difficulties on rivers including the Thames, Lark, and Ouse due to low water levels. Additionally, most reservoirs in England remain below normal levels, with five classified as exceptionally low. The combination of warmer waters and decreased oxygen levels is placing fish under “severe stress,” as noted by Mark Owen, Head of Fisheries at the Angling Trust. Emma Pinchbeck, Chief Executive of the Climate Change Committee, expressed concern that the UK is “not prepared at all” for such prolonged dry spells, emphasizing on BBC Radio 4 the impacts on farming and infrastructure, and warning about the challenges posed by changing weather patterns up to 2050.
This summer, the accumulation of extreme weather events rather than any single occurrence has been particularly striking. While climate change does not directly cause every heatwave or drought, it significantly alters their probability by increasing average temperatures. This rise increases evaporation rates and accelerates soil drying, creating a feedback loop where dry ground reduces cooling of the air, allowing temperatures to surge even further. The UK is now experiencing hotter, drier summers that climate scientists had predicted as part of a broader global trend. In fact, the country has faced three droughts in the past five years—2022, 2025, and 2026—and has seen 34 days of temperatures reaching 30°C or above in England this year, including a stretch of 13 consecutive days in July. The Met Office warns that heat extremes are becoming both more frequent and intense due to human-driven climate change.
Compounding these climate challenges is the influence of El Niño, a recurring climate phenomenon caused by unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters, which affects weather patterns worldwide. The World Meteorological Organization has indicated that a strong El Niño event is developing and is expected to play a dominant role in global climate patterns in the coming months, adding a natural boost to already elevated global temperatures
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