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This year’s agricultural harvest in the UK faces the prospect of being the worst on record, as farmers sound the alarm over the impact of an exceptionally dry spring and summer. According to the Met Office, England and Wales experienced their driest July in 190 years of record-keeping, triggering drought declarations across extensive areas of the country. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has revised downward its projections for the UK’s cereals and oilseed harvest, anticipating a shortfall of 2.5 million tonnes compared to earlier estimates.
Tim O’Malley, chairman of Nationwide Produce, described the situation as “as bad as it’s ever been,” warning consumers to expect either higher supermarket prices or reduced sizes of fresh vegetables, a phenomenon known as shrinkflation. The harvest of key crops like barley, oats, and rapeseed—used widely for beer, breakfast cereals, and vegetable oils—is forecasted to drop to about 19.5 million tonnes, marking the lowest level since records started in 1984. This represents a steep decline from the previous low of 19.8 million tonnes recorded in 2020 and could lead to an estimated £390 million in lost revenue. These crops are also essential for livestock feed, underscoring their importance throughout the food supply chain.
O’Malley elaborated that the reduced yields will result in smaller-sized fresh produce. He noted the quality of crops is suffering due to stress from the intense weather conditions, explaining, “We’ve got crop with stress or we’ve got quality issues. So you will see a smaller crop.” Although retailers are striving to maintain prices, he suggested that eventual price increases may be unavoidable, especially if dependency on imports grows. Reflecting on current trends, O’Malley pointed out that grocers are already sourcing more products like broccoli and iceberg lettuce from countries such as Spain during what is normally an off-season, stating: “I think we’re going to see more of that, unfortunately.”
Water scarcity is a considerable challenge contributing to these hardships. Farmers typically supplement irrigation for crops and livestock through stored winter rainfall and by drawing water—via abstraction—from rivers, streams, or groundwater. However, this summer’s severely low rainfall has drastically reduced available water supplies. The Environment Agency has declared drought conditions across half of England and all of Wales. Wales has received just 8% of its usual rainfall for the month, with England seeing only 7%, and some southern regions experiencing as little as 1%. High temperatures and recurrent heatwaves have further accelerated evaporation, affecting river levels. Experts warn that climate change is expected to bring more frequent, severe, and prolonged heatwaves to UK summers, significantly increasing the risk of water shortages for farmers.
Tom Lancaster, an analyst specializing in land, food, and farming at the ECIU, highlighted the devastating blow that dry conditions have dealt to the agricultural sector. “At the start of spring farmers were hopeful of a better year, but the dry April and July and record-breaking heat have left farmers facing down the barrel of a third awful harvest in a row,” he said. “Farming is now the sector most exposed to climate change and the risks and damage that it brings.” Martin Lines, a Cambridgeshire-based farmer and head of the Nature Friendly Farming Network, echoed these sentiments, describing the harvest as a “real kick in the teeth.” He recounted how, despite promising crop potential in spring, months of drought and heatwaves have devastated yields. “I’ve never known it this dry and hot on our farm,” Lines said. He also noted that even farmers previously skeptical of climate change are now deeply concerned about the future of their operations, stressing how brutal the past seasons have been for agriculture
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