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The combination of intense heat and scant rainfall has led to persistently dry soil conditions, with moisture levels in the ground remaining critically low. Despite forecasts predicting some rain and showers for Northern Ireland, Scotland, and possibly the northernmost areas of England, the amounts expected are minimal, with less than a millimetre likely to accumulate.
Heading into Friday and the weekend, weather pressure is expected to rise over the southern regions of the UK, which will extend the dry conditions further. While sporadic showers may continue to affect the northern areas, the overall lack of precipitation will persist, exacerbating the existing dryness. This ongoing shortage of rain has resulted in hosepipe bans affecting millions of households, and the dry vegetation has heightened the risk of wildfires in multiple locations.
The Met Office reports that rainfall in England for this month totals just 4.4 millimetres, placing it among the lowest levels ever recorded. This figure matches the rainfall of June 1925 and is only surpassed by February 1891, when just 3.3 millimetres fell. One of the driest spots in southeast England, Wisley in Surrey, has experienced 41 consecutive days without rain as of 28 July.
In Wales, rainfall is also exceptionally scarce. Parts of the region recently triggered drought conditions, and July 2026 is on track to become the fourth driest month on record since rainfall measurements began. The severely low rainfall totals across these areas underscore the continuing challenges posed by the dry weather and heat
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