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Currently, the most expected outcome is that Burnham will become the next prime minister, as no other candidate has presented themselves as a serious contender. Many Members of Parliament (MPs) are operating under this assumption. Wes Streeting, who previously served as Sir Keir’s health secretary, was initially viewed as a potential leadership candidate. However, following Sir Keir’s resignation, Streeting shifted his position by endorsing Burnham and confirming he would not pursue the leadership role himself.
If Burnham manages to secure 323 nominations from MPs, it would make it impossible for any opponent to meet the required threshold of 81 MPs needed to challenge him. In the absence of another challenger, Burnham could be declared Labour leader as soon as 17 July. Despite this, he would not officially assume the role of prime minister until three days later. This delay arises because Sir Keir Starmer must formally resign to King Charles III at Buckingham Palace, after which the King would invite Burnham to form a government. Given that the leadership announcement is set for a Friday, the official transition would occur on the following working day, Monday 20 July.
If Burnham takes office as prime minister, he has already expressed his intention to avoid calling an early election. At a recent online forum, he stated, “I’m going to work to the 2024 manifesto.” This would mark the seventh prime minister in the UK within the past ten years. Notably, four of these leaders—Theresa May in 2016, Boris Johnson also in 2016, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak (both in 2022)—ascended to office mid-term without having won a general election, prompting questions about their mandate from opposition parties.
Despite these questions, a prime minister who takes over between general elections is not required to call a new vote before the next scheduled election, which must be held by 2029. In the current parliamentary system, voters elect MPs and their parties, who then select their leader. The most recent general election took place on 4 July 2024, resulting in a substantial Labour majority. Although Burnham has ruled out an immediate election, the decision to call one before August 2029 depends on various factors such as party performance in polls and the prime minister’s desire to seek an electoral mandate to advance their agenda
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