One million more UK homeowners expected to face mortgage hit

One million more UK homeowners expected to face mortgage hit

The recent conflict in Iran has led to an upward revision in the number of homeowners facing increased mortgage costs, surpassing previous predictions made by the Bank of England. According to the Bank’s latest forecasts, just over five million homeowners are expected to experience higher monthly mortgage payments by the end of 2028. This figure represents a notable rise from the four million homeowners anticipated in December’s projection.

Despite this, the financial impact is not expected to be as severe as those witnessed in recent years, as outlined by the Bank’s Financial Stability Report. For a typical homeowner moving off a fixed-rate mortgage within the next two years, the Bank estimates an average increase of £45 per month. This is considerably lower than the £120 rise that borrowers securing new mortgage deals between late 2022 and the end of 2024 have encountered.

However, homeowners currently benefiting from mortgage deals with interest rates under 3% are likely to face more substantial increases. The Bank highlighted that about 750,000 such borrowers reaching the end of their fixed terms this year could see their monthly payments rise by approximately £170. Currently, over 80% of mortgage customers have fixed-rate agreements, where the interest remains constant until the deal expires—usually after two to five years, at which point a new arrangement is made.

The Bank also noted that more than two million borrowers with two-year fixed-rate deals ending by 2028 are expected to refinance at rates close to their existing ones, resulting in minimal changes to their repayments. Nevertheless, unlike earlier forecasts made before the unrest in Iran, these borrowers are now unlikely to benefit from falling repayments in the coming years

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