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Just before the government revealed its Defence Investment Plan, a quiet exchange took place in the House of Commons chamber between the two men responsible for overseeing the plan’s development. John Healey, who had stepped down as defence secretary due to dissatisfaction with the budget allocated to the plan, was seen in a deep conversation with his successor, Dan Jarvis, behind the Speaker’s chair.
Upon taking the dispatch box, Jarvis emphasized the additional £1.5 billion he had secured from the Treasury within a few weeks of assuming office. Observers in Westminster noted the cooperative relationship between Jarvis and Chancellor Rachel Reeves, a stark contrast to Healey’s previously strained communications with the Treasury that surfaced during his resignation. Despite the increased funds bringing the total uplift for the armed forces to £15 billion, Healey maintained that this sum remained insufficient.
Earlier, Sir Keir Starmer described the plan as “a platform on which I know my successor will build.” While acknowledging Healey’s reserved criticism, Jarvis admitted in the chamber that more investment would be needed beyond the current announcement, signaling ongoing challenges ahead.
Healey’s resignation earlier this month had been accompanied by claims from his allies accusing “Treasury trickery” for inflating the perceived funds attached to the plan. The published document revealed potentially difficult financial hurdles for Starmer’s successor as prime minister. Specifically, Treasury confirmation indicated that only £10.3 billion of the £15 billion committed funds had been identified, leaving a £4.7 billion shortfall to be addressed in the following autumn Budget. This responsibility is expected to land on Andy Burnham and his eventual chancellor.
In addition, the plan depends on finding £10.7 billion in “defence efficiencies” by 2030, though little information was provided on how such savings would be realized. An underlying assumption in the document is that defence will remain a top priority during the next spending review, implying possible further budget cuts across other government departments — a scenario that raises questions about Burnham’s future policy priorities.
While Burnham is reported to have engaged in constructive discussions with Healey regarding defence funding, many close to him admit to limited clarity on his stance. Notably, Burnham’s recent leadership vision made little mention of defence matters. Jarvis confirmed to BBC Newsnight that he had spoken with Burnham about the investment plan, but highlighted that some security details were not shared, and Burnham had not formally approved the entire plan. When questioned, Jarvis declined to confirm if Burnham had been made aware of the £4.7 billion funding gap he would need to address as prime minister.
Jarvis faced some of his toughest moments not from opposition MPs but from members of his own Labour party, with nearly every Labour MP expressing that the current funding was inadequate. Criticism came from senior Labour figures such as Tan Dhesi, chair of the defence select committee, and Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the treasury select committee. One ally of Burnham described the financial shortfalls in the plan as an “additional spending pressure” he will confront.
While those around Burnham might find some relief that Starmer published the Defence Investment Plan before stepping down, it is clear that debates over defence spending will remain a significant challenge for the incoming prime minister. The complex negotiations and funding concerns that troubled the outgoing leader will persist as a key issue in his successor’s agenda
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