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Andy Burnham has set out an ambitious vision for the redistribution of power across the UK, claiming it would represent the most significant shift of authority the country has ever experienced. In his first major policy address, Burnham emphasized his intent to diminish Whitehall’s centralized control by devolving greater powers not only to Greater Manchester and other English city regions but also more extensively to Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Greater London. Although he did not provide detailed plans for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, the former Mayor of Greater Manchester stressed that enhancing devolution is crucial to fostering economic growth throughout the UK. “We will never get growth up to the level Britain needs unless every single postcode in the land is set up to contribute to it,” he declared. BBC Verify has examined the potential effects further devolution might have on economic performance within the UK.
Currently, Scotland enjoys a broad range of devolved powers managed by the Scottish Parliament, covering crucial areas such as health, education, justice, policing, and the environment. Holyrood also controls most income tax rates, except for the personal allowance, and holds some sway over welfare policies. In comparison, the Welsh Senedd operates with more limited powers, though it oversees the NHS in Wales, education, local government, and housing, and can adjust income tax rates, but it lacks authority over justice and policing. Northern Ireland, under the Good Friday Agreement, wields notable devolved powers encompassing health, education, and housing. English cities have seen smaller-scale devolution over the past decade, with Greater Manchester among the most empowered regions, holding control over transport, housing, skills, and health expenditure.
The economic impact of devolution across the UK nations has been subject to scrutiny by economists, who generally observe no marked increase in growth rates in Scotland, Wales, or Northern Ireland since devolution began. These regions have not significantly closed the productivity gap with the UK average, a figure heavily boosted by London and the South East. Official data reveals that, as of 2023, Scotland’s GDP per capita stands at roughly 93% of the UK average, Northern Ireland at 83%, and Wales at 74%, levels roughly unchanged since 1998. However, Greater Manchester has illustrated a different pattern since receiving progressive powers starting in 2009, notably gaining authority over transport, housing, and planning in 2014. Statistical analyses suggest that Greater Manchester’s economy has outpaced other English city regions, including London, particularly since 2015, with especially notable productivity growth since 2020.
Some skepticism exists around the reliability of these growth figures, as some of the areas showing rapid advances are mainly residential, potentially distorting the data. Nonetheless, many experts agree that Greater Manchester’s relative economic success compared to other UK city regions can partly be attributed to its devolved powers. These powers allow the mayoral office to craft regional housing strategies, direct investments, and coordinate affordable housing initiatives, while also attracting private investment and fostering job creation. The establishment of the Bee Network bus system under the mayoralty and efforts to encourage private sector involvement in Manchester city center are cited as key factors. Andrew Carter from the Centre for Cities highlighted Manchester’s leadership’s commitment to building housing, supporting university expansion, enhancing research and development, and establishing an efficient transport system to attract both domestic and foreign investment, positioning the city as a hub for higher-value economic activities.
Economists widely point to the overly concentrated economic activity in London as a central barrier to the UK’s overall growth, contrasting this with other European countries where second-tier cities operate much closer economically to their capitals. For example, French cities like Toulouse and Lyon, German cities such as Munich and Frankfurt, and Spanish cities including Barcelona and Madrid, exhibit productivity levels far nearer their capitals than UK cities like Birmingham and Manchester do to London. Analysts attribute this more balanced economic geography largely to the stronger levels of devolution in those countries. The Resolution Foundation has argued that reducing disparities between London and major UK cities would not only lift employment and prosperity locally but also enhance the UK’s national economy by raising total activity levels and boosting its long-term growth potential
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