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Andy Burnham’s path to becoming the next Prime Minister appears increasingly secure as each day passes. While he has earned the nickname “The King of the North,” questions remain about what his leadership might mean specifically for Scotland. In a speech set for Monday, Burnham is expected to present his vision regarding both devolution and economic policy, potentially giving clearer insight into his plans for Scotland’s future.
The ongoing debate between the Scottish government and UK ministers over the possibility of a second independence referendum is unlikely to be resolved easily, no matter who occupies Number 10. When asked about such referendums back in 2020 during an interview, Burnham expressed concerns over the constant political divisions created by repeated votes. He noted, “you just can’t keep having referendum after referendum,” warning that this continual cycle prevents political wounds from healing, regardless of whether it concerns Brexit or Scottish independence.
Those close to Burnham anticipate that his stance on a second referendum will remain consistent, with the UK government unlikely to shift its position under his leadership. However, supporters argue that Burnham is better placed than his Labour predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer, at effectively communicating these views. A Scottish Labour MP explained, “Whether it’s fair or not, the way you talk and handle yourself matters to people,” highlighting the importance of connecting with the public in just a few crucial moments. Burnham’s experience working outside London is seen by some as an asset, suggesting he may have a better grasp of Scottish issues than recent prime ministers. Enhancing devolution is expected to feature prominently in his promises to the UK’s regions and nations.
In terms of policy, Burnham and his allies have discussed the possibility of devolving more powers not just to Scotland but also to local levels across the UK, potentially bypassing the Scottish Parliament in some areas. For instance, while welfare responsibilities are partly devolved to Holyrood, job centres remain under UK control. Some believe Burnham could transfer more authority over such services to local administrations in cities like Glasgow or Edinburgh, emphasizing a form of “devolution with a purpose” driven by a leader familiar with decision-making outside London. However, Burnham’s past criticisms—such as advocating the abolition of the Barnett Formula, which allocates funding to Scotland—may require clarification. Although he once called it unfair to English regions and demanded a new system based on social need, his team has since stated that he does not plan to change the formula, assuring that Scotland will remain central in any government he leads.
As the prospect of Burnham’s premiership grows, political opponents in Scotland remain wary. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dismissed him as “more of the same” and described him as “shallow and ego-driven.” Despite this, some within the SNP privately acknowledge that Burnham’s communication skills could temporarily boost Labour’s prospects in Scotland. Still, they see him facing the same economic and political challenges encountered by Starmer. Burnham, currently focused on securing his re-election as Greater Manchester mayor, has no confirmed visits to Scotland planned but will meet Scottish MPs soon. Rebuilding Labour’s support north of the border remains a major hurdle, requiring him to convince both party members and the wider Scottish public of his intentions—an audience that may prove to be skeptical
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