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Andy Burnham’s triumph in the Makerfield by-election stands out as a significant personal achievement. This success is particularly notable given Labour’s recent struggles; in last year’s Runcorn by-election, the party’s vote share dropped by 14 points, and four months ago in Gorton & Denton, it plunged by 25 points. Additionally, during the local elections on 7 May, Labour trailed Reform by 20 points in Makerfield itself.
Typically, governing parties experience a decline in support during by-elections. However, Burnham defied this trend by not only maintaining Labour’s 45% vote share from 2024 but also increasing it by 10 points. This development comes despite Labour’s stagnant national polling at around 19%, where no recent surge in popularity has been evident. Furthermore, Labour suffered heavy losses in the Scottish by-elections held simultaneously, with vote shares falling by 18 and 19 points in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry and Aberdeen South respectively.
Burnham’s victory appears to rest on two main factors. First, he succeeded in winning back much of the 2024 Labour electorate in Makerfield, with recent polls indicating that about 80% of those who voted Labour two years ago supported him in this by-election. This is a stark contrast to national trends, where only just over half of 2024 Labour voters express continued support for the party. Second, as anticipated by polls, Burnham benefited from a significant squeeze on other parties, including the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Greens, who collectively managed only 3% of the vote—a 19-point decrease since 2024. The Liberal Democrats recorded their worst by-election result ever, capturing just 0.4%, while the Conservatives secured only 2.2%, barely surpassing their previous low.
Makerfield was considered prime territory for Reform, whose backing is primarily drawn from Brexit supporters, two-thirds of whom reside in this constituency. However, the party’s vote share increased by a mere three points compared to 2024, falling short of larger gains elsewhere and in national polls. The emergence of Restore Britain, a new party advocating even tougher migration policies than Reform and founded by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, added complexity to the race; it alone, apart from Labour and Reform, retained its electoral deposit with 7% of the vote. It remains unclear how many of Restore Britain’s supporters might otherwise have backed Reform, but the split suggests additional difficulties for the pro-Brexit, socially conservative vote. Meanwhile, while the Conservatives faltered in Makerfield, they experienced a contrasting surge in Aberdeen South, capitalizing on local discontent over net zero policies with a record 25-point increase in vote share—their first Scottish by-election gain since 1967.
The outcomes of these by-elections signal significant implications for UK politics. There is growing speculation about a potential challenge to the current Labour leader, while the government’s approach to energy policy is likely to face increased scrutiny and political pressure
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