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Recent racially motivated disturbances in Northern Ireland have highlighted notable shifts in the region’s demographic makeup. Although international migration levels to Northern Ireland remain below the peaks observed in the late 2000s, the origins of newcomers have changed significantly since Brexit. Whereas previously many arrivals were from European Union countries, particularly Eastern Europe, recent years have seen a marked rise in migrants from South Asia and Africa.
Data from medical card registrations, which indicate people signing up to access local general practitioners, help illustrate this transformation. Back in 2018, over 1,000 registrations were from Poland compared to approximately 650 from India. By 2024, however, Polish registrations had plummeted to just 100, while Indian registrations surged to more than 3,000. This shift is a direct consequence of Brexit and the UK government’s new migration policies.
For almost two decades following the 2004 EU expansion, migration to Northern Ireland was predominantly driven by free movement from countries such as Poland, Romania, and Lithuania. Thousands of workers from these nations filled roles in sectors like manufacturing, hospitality, and agriculture. Migration levels peaked around 2007 during a period of economic growth fueled by a property boom. At that time, Northern Ireland’s international migration was described as largely Eurocentric, with relatively few migrants arriving from outside the EU.
The migration landscape changed following policy adjustments introduced by the UK government under Boris Johnson. The new points-based immigration system launched in January 2021 aimed to reduce reliance on lower-skilled EU labour by implementing more stringent skill requirements and abolishing lower-skilled and temporary work routes. These changes effectively cut off the supply of EU workers to key industries such as food processing and manufacturing in Northern Ireland. At the same time, however, immigration routes for non-EU nationals were relaxed, lowering skill thresholds and removing the Resident Labour Market Test that required employers to seek local workers first. A dedicated visa for health and care workers was also introduced, featuring faster processing and reduced fees. Following the easing of pandemic travel restrictions, international migration into Northern Ireland increased compared with levels from the 2010s, though still below peaks from the mid-2000s. For example, from 2022 to 2024, net international migration was about 18,500, compared to roughly 22,000 between 2006 and 2008. The origins of migrants have, however, shifted dramatically, with rises in National Insurance registrations among Indian, Nigerian, and Pakistani nationals, while registrations from Polish and Lithuanian migrants have sharply declined. Additionally, there has been significant growth in Indian students attending universities in Northern Ireland, from just 85 ten years ago to over 2,000 by 2022. These patterns, often referred to as the “Boriswave,” coincide with broader UK-wide trends. Political narratives around this period vary markedly; the Labour Party has labelled it a failed “open borders experiment.” Upcoming official migration statistics for Northern Ireland, expected later this year, will provide further insight into the impact of these policy changes on the region
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