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This week, the UK experienced an extraordinary May heatwave, with temperatures soaring to a record-breaking 35.1°C. The rise in temperature occurred rapidly in many areas, increasing by up to 10°C within just two days—a stark contrast to historical patterns where daily increases were typically more gradual, around one or two degrees. Meteorologists, including Simon King, have observed this phenomenon of sudden temperature spikes becoming more common. Ed Hawkins, a climate science professor at the University of Reading, explained that current heat events start earlier, intensify more quickly, and unfold against an already warmer climate backdrop. Dr Ségolène Berthou from the Met Office noted that although it’s not definitively proven that extreme heat spikes occur faster now, researchers are exploring several contributing factors for this pattern.
The Met Office’s State of the Climate 2024 report highlights that the warmest days in parts of the UK are heating at nearly twice the rate of average days. Since the period 1961–1990, the frequency of days 5°C above the norm has doubled, and days exceeding 10°C above average have quadrupled. Dr Berthou summarises this by saying, “Extreme temperatures are increasing faster than average temperatures.” Comparing summer daytime temperatures between 1991-2020 and 1961-1990, an increase of approximately 1.5°C is evident. The UK’s record-breaking 40.3°C in July 2022 is a case in point. Studies since then show that the chance of surpassing 40°C is now more than twenty times greater than it was in the 1960s. This higher baseline temperature effectively gives the UK a “head start,” allowing typical summer weather conditions to cross heatwave thresholds more readily.
The speed at which temperatures escalate is influenced not only by initial air warmth but also by the dryness of the soil and atmosphere. Dry soils, which are increasingly common due to ongoing climate trends, warm faster than moist soils because less energy is consumed by evaporation and more contributes directly to heating. The Met Office has projected earlier seasonal soil drying and more frequent droughts, especially in southern and eastern England. Similarly, the atmosphere can become drier under persistent high-pressure systems—often called blocking highs or heatdomes—which involve sinking air that compresses and heats up. These systems, while not necessarily occurring more frequently, seem to bring more intense heat and dryness than previously observed. Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the Australian National University described the phenomenon: “The dice are loaded for it to be hotter more quickly…as soon as high pressure systems move over, bang, the temperature goes up.”
Wind patterns also play a significant role in the UK’s heatwaves. Typically, heatwaves coincide with south or south-easterly winds that carry warmer air from southern Europe and North Africa, regions experiencing heat extremes that are rising at roughly twice the global average. This means that when southerly winds strengthen, they transport increasingly hot air masses over the UK, often leading to rapid temperature increases within days. This explains why average temperatures under westerly winds can quickly shift to intense heat when the wind direction changes. Additionally, rising sea surface temperatures around the UK compound this effect. Marine heatwaves have become more frequent and persistent, warming coastal waters substantially. For instance, in June 2023, London’s temperature jump from 23°C to 31°C corresponded with sea temperatures being 3–5°C above average. The warm waters helped raise near-surface land temperatures by about 1°C during the month, contributing directly to the UK’s hottest June on record.
The dangers posed by these sharp heat rises are significant. Heatwaves have fatal consequences, with around 24,000 heat-related deaths recorded across Europe in summer 2025 alone. Vulnerable groups, including the elderly, young children, and those with pre-existing health conditions, are particularly at risk, especially when temperatures climb swiftly. Professor Perkins-Kirkpatrick emphasizes the impact of sudden temperature jumps: “If you have temperatures going from 20°C to above 30°C in a short period of time, that’s going to hit certain people really, really hard…especially if they don’t do anything to acclimatise or adapt.” Initial heat exposure days present the highest risk for heat exhaustion and heatstroke before the body can adjust. While some meteorologists sense that heat spikes are becoming more frequent, Dr Berthou indicates that “further scientific analysis” is needed to confirm if these rapid temperature increases are indeed occurring sooner within heatwave events
Read the full article from The BBC here: Read More
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