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Western Europe is currently experiencing an intense heatwave, with very few areas escaping the soaring temperatures. In the UK, the mercury rose above 35°C on Tuesday, exceeding the previous May record by more than 2°C. The Met Office notes that such warmth is extraordinary, especially so early in the year, when spring typically brings milder weather.
France is also facing an exceptional early heatwave, as reported by its meteorological service, Météo-France. The country has seen hundreds of temperature records fall during this period of anomalously warm weather. Similar unusual warmth has been observed across Ireland, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. Ireland’s May temperature record was shattered by over 1°C, pointing to the widespread nature of this phenomenon. The immediate driver behind these conditions is a “heat dome,” a weather pattern characterized by an area of high pressure becoming stationary over Europe, trapping hot air near the surface.
Scientists attribute the severity of this heatwave largely to human-induced climate change, primarily caused by the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas. According to the Copernicus climate service, Europe’s average temperature has increased by 0.56°C per decade over the last 30 years, which is more than twice the global average warming rate. Although half a degree might seem small, it represents a significant shift in climate that intensifies heat extremes. Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the Met Office, emphasizes that heatwaves are becoming more intense as they occur on top of an already warming climate. He reflected, “I’ve been a climate scientist for 33 years and we’re seeing exactly the kinds of things that we were warning back then… [although] these records are perhaps more extreme and coming sooner than we had expected.”
The magnitude by which recent temperature records have been broken is unprecedented. Under stable climate conditions, the chances of seeing new temperature records decline over time because longer data records make it less likely for extreme values to occur. Erich Fischer, a professor at ETH Zurich, highlights that breaking a longstanding record by a large margin is unusual. He explained, “If someone beats a world record in high jump, you would expect them to beat it by one centimetre and not suddenly by 20, 30 centimetres and the same holds for the weather.” But in the context of a rapidly warming climate, especially over western Europe, the heatwaves become more extreme. “So if the same weather events we had in, say, the 1970s [happened again], it will not only be slightly warmer, but it will simply smash the record,” Fischer added. This pattern is not isolated to Europe; in March of this year, nearly one-third of active US weather stations established new temperature records for the time of year, with margins described as “utterly absurd” by Robert Rohde, chief scientist at Berkeley Earth.
The current intense heatwaves are occurring within a global climate already warmed by approximately 1.4°C since the late 19th century due to human activities like fossil fuel burning. Countries such as the UK and Switzerland, which have infrastructure and buildings not designed for extreme heat, face increasing challenges as these temperature extremes become more frequent and severe. Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London, warns, “The climate we are living in today is simply not the one we grew up with, and our buildings and infrastructure are woefully unprepared for what’s next.” The UK’s all-month temperature record, standing at 36.7°C since 1911, has been surpassed multiple times in recent decades and currently holds at 40.3°C, set in July 2022. Richard Betts underlines the urgency of mitigating emissions, stating, “Until we reduce global carbon emissions to net zero, we’ll continue to heat the planet and temperature records will continue to be broken.
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