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Northern Ireland’s justice minister has warned that without an agreed budget, front-line services are facing a severe crisis. With no multi-year budget secured for the first time in over a decade, government departments began the current financial year uncertain of their spending limits. Naomi Long expressed deep concern regarding the impact this uncertainty will have on critical areas such as policing, probation, prisons, and the youth justice agency.
An important recovery plan aimed at expanding the Northern Ireland police force to 7,000 officers by 2028 has now been described as “in grave doubt” by Liam Kelly, chair of the Police Federation of Northern Ireland. The first phase, due by April 2026, intended to see officer numbers grow to 6,500, but they are presently at 6,315 — actually 35 fewer than the original baseline set for 2025. Speaking on BBC’s Good Morning Ulster, Naomi Long remarked, “I haven’t waited for the Police Federation or the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) to say it’s a crisis, I have been saying it to the executive.” She further noted, “Without a budget, I cannot give certainty to the Chief Constable or to any other body that operates in the justice system.”
Long revealed that the draft budget presented would leave the Department of Justice with a shortfall exceeding £100 million in its first year—funds necessary just to maintain current service levels. By the third year, she estimates savings of £215 million would be required, equating to the entire operating cost of the prison service, probation service, youth justice agency, and forensic science service combined. She emphasized, “That is a gap that I simply cannot fill,” adding that after a decade of budget tightening, there simply are no further efficiencies to make. Additionally, Long said, “There are very limited opportunities for revenue raising” and dismissed the idea of asking the public to pay more for diminished services. Overall, she described the situation as “not manageable,” highlighting that other departments are similarly struggling with large financial shortfalls, contributing to the ongoing difficulties in reaching a budget agreement.
Agriculture Minister Andrew Muir also stressed the importance of securing a multi-year budget, emphasizing the greater certainty it would offer, particularly to the farming community. “I need that multi-year budget, particularly for the farming community in Northern Ireland, giving certainty in terms of the support that we wish to deliver, not just in this year, but in future financial years,” he said. Muir appealed to the UK government for more support to enable the Northern Ireland Executive to set a budget, acknowledging that while difficult decisions must be made locally, external assistance is critical. A UK government spokesperson confirmed that Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn recently met with the finance minister to discuss the budget, stating, “The government is clear that the executive needs to come forward with a detailed, strategic plan for how it will manage its finances and move towards sustainability,” and expressed hope to receive such a plan soon.
BBC Northern Ireland’s political editor, Enda McClafferty, analyzed the unfolding budget crisis, noting that despite ongoing funding, the absence of an agreed spending plan leaves departments in limbo. He observed that ministers appear to have abandoned attempts at budget agreement, instead turning to the Treasury for additional funds. McClafferty suggested that while securing Treasury support could make a budget deal possible, it will not come without significant challenges, warning that if a resolution is not found, political divisions are likely to deepen amid rising tensions ahead of next year’s election. He concluded by recalling that history shows the Treasury has sometimes conceded under such pressure, but predicted that navigating this financial impasse will be fraught with difficulty
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