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The head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has stated that higher airfares across Europe are unavoidable due to the steep cost of jet fuel. Willie Walsh emphasized that although certain carriers have recently lowered prices in response to reduced demand, the ongoing rise in fuel expenses cannot be indefinitely absorbed by airlines.
Walsh also highlighted concerns about potential jet fuel shortages for the UK aviation sector during the summer months but reassured the public that there is no cause for alarm. He further pointed out that even if the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route impacted by conflicts in the Middle East, were to reopen immediately, the repercussions from current disruptions would likely persist well into the next year.
Meanwhile, a spokesperson from the UK government affirmed that no jet fuel shortages have been observed by airlines at present. The UK and Europe are typically heavily dependent on supplies from the Middle East and are actively seeking alternative sources. Recently, the European Union announced that US-grade jet fuel could be permitted for use by European airlines, subject to careful management, as a way to diversify supply. The EU’s energy commissioner, Dan Jorgensen, mentioned that while serious shortages are not expected in the short term, supply difficulties cannot be ruled out further ahead.
Despite reassurances from industry leaders such as Tui’s CEO Sebastien Ebel, Walsh urged caution due to the timing of peak travel demand in the UK. He noted that flight frequency and corresponding fuel needs typically surge by about 25% during July and August compared to earlier months of the year, raising the risk of shortages if alternative supply chains are not secured. Nonetheless, Walsh emphasized that a widespread cancellation of flights should be avoidable, underscoring the importance of careful planning.
The increasing price of jet fuel has already translated into higher fares on many long-haul routes. Walsh explained that airlines have limited capacity to continue absorbing these costs over time, and while some discounts may be temporarily used to boost demand, elevated ticket prices are expected to become the norm. The disruption to crude oil supplies, as well as damage to refining infrastructure in the Gulf, means fuel prices are unlikely to decrease rapidly, regardless of the reopening status of key transit routes.
In response, the government has highlighted that fuel suppliers maintain stocks of bunkered fuel to enhance supply resilience. Officials are collaborating with the aviation industry to ensure flight operations continue smoothly and are consulting on measures designed to help airlines establish realistic schedules, with the aim of minimizing last-minute disruptions and protecting travelers’ holiday plans
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