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The recent local election results highlight a marked fragmentation in British electoral politics, at least for now. Reform UK has emerged as the leading party, having secured the highest number of seats, accounting for 30% of those declared so far. In over 500 wards where detailed voting data has been compiled by the BBC, Reform UK holds an average vote share of 26%. Although this figure is not extraordinarily high, it is sufficient to place the party well ahead of its competitors.
Nigel Farage’s party performed particularly strongly in areas that heavily supported Brexit in 2016. In wards with more than 60% of the vote in favor of Leave during the 2015 referendum, Reform UK’s backing averages 41%. Conversely, in regions where less than 49% voted for Brexit, the party managed just 10% of the vote on average. Notably, Reform UK’s only council control victory so far is in Newcastle-under-Lyme, a location that voted nearly two-to-one in favor of Brexit.
The Greens have seen more modest achievements, with an average vote share of 16% in declared wards, consistent with their polling. This represents a seven-point increase compared to their level of support in the 2022 local elections and recent polls before the 2024 general election. Despite this upward trend, their net seat gain remains modest at 25. While Greens have secured a number of credible second and third place finishes, they have won comparatively few outright victories.
Meanwhile, both Labour and the Conservatives have experienced significant declines in support. Labour’s vote share is down by 16 points compared to 2022 and by 19 points relative to 2024, with particularly sharp falls in areas where the party was traditionally strong and among wards with large Muslim populations. This decline has translated into a net loss of approximately 250 seats, including the loss of control of eight councils. The Tories have also suffered setbacks, with their average support dropping by 11 points since 2022 and 9 points since 2024. The Conservative losses have been most pronounced in districts where Reform UK performed well, underscoring the emerging threat to Kemi Badenoch’s party. So far, the Conservatives have lost 137 seats. One bright spot for them is regaining control of Westminster, a key London council that Labour took in 2022. However, this Conservative gain was more a consequence of a steep 17-point decline in Labour support than a sign of Conservative progress itself, as their own vote share fell by five points.
The Liberal Democrats had expected significant gains but so far have not achieved this. Although they have taken control of Portsmouth and Stockport, they lost Hull, with their average support down by three points compared to both 2022 and 2024. Their seat gains largely come from capitalizing where they started in second place amid sharp declines in support for Labour or the Conservatives. No signs yet suggest that the Lib Dems can match the level of electoral progress demonstrated by Reform UK or the Greens.
At this stage, only about a third of the contested seats have been declared, leaving many key outcomes still uncertain. The Conservatives and Labour will be hoping for more positive results as more votes are counted
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