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According to the latest projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK is anticipated to experience a demographic shift beginning in 2026, where the number of deaths will surpass births annually. This marks a significant change in the population trends previously expected for the country. The growth rate of the UK population is now predicted to slow down considerably, with forecasts estimating the total population to reach approximately 71 million by 2034. This adjustment is primarily due to a considerable decline in migration levels.
In addition to the reduced migration, fertility rates in the UK are falling, resulting in fewer children over the coming decade. Meanwhile, the proportion of elderly individuals—pensioners—is expected to increase at a faster rate than the working-age population. James Robards, who heads household and population projections at the ONS, emphasized that earlier forecasts had predicted continuous population growth until 2096. However, current data suggest that the population will peak during the 2050s before starting a gradual decline.
Between mid-2024 and mid-2034, the ONS expects key demographic figures to reflect these trends: approximately 6.4 million births, 6.9 million deaths, 7.3 million long-term immigrants, and 5.1 million long-term emigrants. This results in deaths outpacing births by nearly 500,000 within that 10-year period. The ONS has highlighted that these figures serve as projections rather than precise predictions, acknowledging that actual future numbers could differ significantly depending on migration, birth, and death rates.
Net migration is expected to contribute about 2.2 million people to the UK population between 2024 and 2034, a figure considerably lower than previous projections. Dr. Madeleine Sumption of Oxford University’s Migration Observatory pointed out that the sharp rise in immigration seen after Brexit is now considered a temporary spike rather than a sustained pattern. In line with this, net migration numbers surged close to one million in 2023 before dropping sharply. A spokesperson from the Home Office stressed the government’s intention to implement immigration reforms aimed at reducing labour market reliance while attracting highly skilled individuals.
The demographic changes also highlight a growing ageing population. By 2034, pensioners will constitute around 20% of the population, making them the fastest-growing age group despite increases in the state pension age. Conversely, children are expected to decrease by about 1.6 million over the same period, while the working-age population will grow but at a slower pace relative to retirees. A recent House of Lords report noted that younger generations may bear the brunt of these changes, warning that existing government policies—such as raising the pension age and increasing immigration—are insufficient on their own to tackle the challenges posed by an ageing society.
These shifts will bring significant strain on public services, particularly the NHS, pensions, and public finances. Stuart McDonald from pension consultancy LCP stated that the NHS faces challenges not only from a larger overall population but especially from more people living to ages that require greater healthcare. He also remarked that these projections raise tough questions about the fairness and feasibility of expecting people to work longer. Sarah Scobie, Deputy Director of Research at the Nuffield Trust, added that end-of-life care is currently ill-prepared for a rise in deaths associated with an ageing population, noting that hospital care constitutes over 80% of health expenditure for patients in their final year of life, much of which is emergency care
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