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Recent data from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) indicates that Scotland’s population is projected to decline, mainly due to an anticipated reduction in international migration. Previously, the NRS had forecasted a continuous population increase, predicting Scotland’s population to reach 5.8 million by 2047. However, the latest projections reveal a different trend: the population is expected to hit a peak of 5.56 million in 2033 before decreasing to 5.47 million by 2049.
This downward adjustment is attributed primarily to migration levels dropping from what were described as “unusually high” numbers. Despite a consistent trend since 2015 where deaths have exceeded births, Scotland’s population growth had been sustained by net inbound migration — more people arriving from overseas than leaving. Immigration has contributed to population growth for the past 24 years, and earlier expectations were that this would continue for the next two decades. Nonetheless, the new projections indicate a 1.3% population decline over 25 years, contrasting with a 4.5% growth forecasted for the overall UK population, although even the UK’s growth rate has been revised down due to lower migration than previously expected.
Andrew White, who heads the population and migration statistics at NRS, explained the current outlook: “Our latest projections are lower than the last set of figures. This is mainly driven by migration falling from unusually high levels. While we continue to project more people moving to Scotland than leaving, we now anticipate these levels to be too low to completely offset the gap between deaths and births. At the same time, we see the number of older people continuing to rise but the number of children and young adults fall.” The NRS emphasizes that these projections are not precise predictions but rather estimates based on current trends.
A detailed breakdown of the figures shows that by mid-2049, the population aged 75 and over is expected to increase by more than 300,000 individuals. In contrast, the number of children is projected to decrease by nearly 166,000, and the number of young adults is set to decline by over 157,000. The NRS refers to the ongoing situation of deaths outweighing births as “natural change” and forecasts this trend to widen due to lower birth rates and an aging population.
Although immigration is outside the direct remit of the Scottish Parliament, it has become a highly debated issue during the current election campaign. Some politicians, like Reform’s Thomas Kerr, argue that immigration has overwhelmed public systems, while others acknowledge its necessity or value. For instance, Conservative Stephen Kerr remarked that many voters feel governments lack control over immigration, whereas Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine, Labour’s Michael Marra, and Scottish Green Patrick Harvie each spoke in favor of immigration’s role. These discussions have been a notable feature of recent political debates in Scotland, illustrating the complex views surrounding migration and its impact on society
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