Auto Amazon Links: No products found. Blocked by captcha.
Since the year 2000, the Grand National has been contested 25 times, with the exception of 2020 when the race was canceled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Among all winners in this period, Tiger Roll holds the distinction of being the shortest-priced victor at 4-1 in 2019, marking a remarkable achievement as the first horse to win back-to-back since Red Rum in the 1970s. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the longest odds winner was Mon Mome in 2009 at 100-1. Last year’s winner, Nick Rockett, also offered sizeable returns at 33-1.
Looking at the overall betting trends in this century, the average odds of winners have hovered close to 24-1. This includes eight winners who were priced at 33-1 or greater, suggesting that long shots often come through, so punters should not be deterred by lengthy odds. However, a closer examination of the past ten renewals shows that the average winning price has shortened, with the winner at 11-1 or less on five occasions. Moreover, six favourites or joint-favourites have claimed victory over the last two decades, three of which occurred in the last six races, including I Am Maximus in 2024. Additionally, favourites finished among the top five a further twelve times since 2000.
When it comes to trainers, the Grand National is known for being particularly tough to predict compared to events like Cheltenham, where patterns tied to specific trainers and jockeys are clearer. Willie Mullins, for instance, secured his first wins since 2005 with two recent champions and has placed six horses in the top five across the last decade. Gordon Elliott, responsible for Tiger Roll’s consecutive wins, has also produced four top-five finishers in the past ten years. Henry de Bromhead claimed victory in 2021 and has seen two other horses place. Notably, these three trainers are preparing 16 of the 34 runners slated for this year’s grand event.
In the jockey ranks, Paul Townend is aiming to add to his 2024 win, riding I Am Maximus and benefiting from his position as Willie Mullins’ stable jockey. Jack Kennedy has finished in the top five four times, while Mark Walsh and Danny Mullins have three and two top-five finishes respectively.
Official ratings play a significant role in assessing a horse’s chances. Of the last 16 winners, 14 had official ratings of 146 or higher, with the vast majority falling between 146 and 160. For instance, I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett entered recent races with ratings of 159 and 163, indicating that higher-rated horses often have an edge. Examining racing frequency, in the early years of the past decade, most winners had five or six starts since September. This average has since declined somewhat, with recent winners averaging around four runs in the same timeframe. Importantly, no winner in the last 25 races had fewer than three runs during the season preceding their victory.
The race’s history also reveals that trainers based in Ireland have had the lion’s share of success lately, accounting for seven winners in the last nine years, while the most recent English-trained winner was in 2015. Scottish trainer Lucinda Russell achieved two wins but does not have runners this year. Regarding breeding, Irish-bred horses have won 18 times since 2000, French-bred four times, and British-bred just twice. Form coming into the race is critical as well: out of the past 25 winners, 11 finished first or second in their previous run, and six of the last eight winners won their race immediately prior to the National. Career falls also influence outcomes, with every 21st-century winner except Auroras Encore having only two or fewer falls before the Grand National. Minella Times, the sole exception in the last decade, had fallen previously but still triumphed.
Distance experience counts too; 21 of the 24 different winners since 2000 had recorded at least one victory over three miles or longer, with 18 winning more than twice at these extended distances. The average time between a winner’s last race and the National is slightly over 41 days, with most falling between 24 and 84 days.
Applying these insights to the 34 horses entered for 2026, about half can be eliminated based on age alone, excluding those seven years old or older than ten. Additional factors include weight assignments—such as for Haiti Couleurs, who would carry more weight than any winner since 2000, which works against the horse—and official ratings below 146 excluding others like Imperial Saint and Amirite. Similarly, Perceval Legallois is ruled out for inadequate recent runs, while Spanish Harlem and High Class Hero were pulled up last time, which is also a negative indicator. Some remaining contenders fail the test by lacking wins over three miles, including Iroko, Gorgeous Tom, and Firefox.
This narrows the field to eight horses all meeting various key criteria, with seven having raced within the past 49 days. Among these, Answer to Kayf being non-Irish bred, and Johnnywho having a British trainer, count against them based on recent trends. Ultimately, six horses emerge as statistically the most promising: Monty’s Star, Lecky Watson, Three Card Brag, Oscars Brother, Stellar Story, and Captain Cody. While data offers a strong guide, many still choose entrants based on personal preferences such as lucky numbers, names, or silks, proving that chance always plays a role in this unpredictable event
Read the full article from The BBC here: Read More
Auto Amazon Links: No products found. Blocked by captcha.