Petrol and diesel prices continue to rise as concerns grow over US-Iran ceasefire

Petrol and diesel prices continue to rise as concerns grow over US-Iran ceasefire

Fuel prices for petrol and diesel have continued to increase as drivers remain uncertain about the potential impact of the recent US-Iran ceasefire on costs at the pump. While there was an initial drop in oil prices following the announcement to halt hostilities, concerns about the stability of the ceasefire caused prices to rise again. Notably, the cost of crude oil is still considerably higher than levels seen before the conflict began, tempering expectations for a quick reduction in fuel expenses.

Some optimism exists among motoring groups suggesting that fuel prices might start to decline within the next few weeks, provided the ceasefire remains intact. Doubts over the ceasefire’s durability have emerged since Israel launched strikes on Lebanon, prompting warnings from Tehran about a possible “regret-inducing response.” Meanwhile, the US administration has indicated it will maintain forces in the region until Iran adheres to the terms of the ceasefire agreement. A key condition of the deal involves the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil and gas shipments. Nevertheless, reports have emerged that Iran intends to keep the strait closed in response to Israeli military actions, raising fears of prolonged energy supply disruptions.

Since the conflict’s outbreak at the end of February, wholesale oil prices have surged by 35%. This is directly influencing pump prices, with UK data showing that average petrol reached 158.03p per litre and diesel hit 191.11p per litre recently—both figures slightly higher than the previous day. For drivers, this means the cost for a full tank of petrol is now almost £14 more expensive than at the conflict’s start, while filling a diesel tank has increased by nearly £27. Despite these rises, the RAC has advised against expecting significant price drops shortly. In contrast, the AA notes that wholesale fuel prices have fallen below levels seen at the start of the week, with their spokesman Luke Bosdet predicting prices could stabilize and then decrease by next weekend if the ceasefire holds.

Global financial markets have reflected the underlying uncertainty. After some gains earlier in the week, stock indices in Japan, Europe, and the US showed mixed performance, with losses tempered by slight recoveries by day’s end. Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, described the market mood as cautious, pointing to nervousness over whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open for shipping. Alerts from Iran’s navy warning that unauthorized vessels attempting to cross the strait “will be targeted and destroyed” have compounded this unease. Shipping firms report that only a small number of vessels have passed through the strait since the ceasefire was announced, far fewer than the usual daily average before the conflict. Even if normal traffic resumes, it will take at least ten days to clear the backlog of waiting ships, and several weeks or months for global trade to return to pre-crisis levels. Shipping industry experts warn that further complications, such as potential fees for strait passage, could severely impact global maritime trade

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