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This winter’s persistent rain and flooding across parts of the UK might give the impression that a record-breaking wet season has occurred. However, provisional figures released by the Met Office indicate that overall rainfall for the UK is approximately 9% above the average—showing the season has been wetter than usual, but not extraordinary on a national scale. This broader statistic conceals significant regional differences, with some southern English areas approaching their second-wettest winter since records began, while many parts of north-west Scotland have experienced considerably less rainfall than normal.
The unusual rainfall distribution largely stems from a blocked weather pattern that dominated much of January and February. This setup caused certain regions to be repeatedly subjected to rain-bearing systems, whereas other areas were comparatively dry. Meteorological winter, which concludes at the end of February, still has a few days remaining, but as of the 25th, southern England has recorded its seventh-wettest winter since record-keeping started in 1836. England has experienced 35% more rain than an average winter, with Northern Ireland and Wales also seeing above-normal rainfall totals by 25% and 14%, respectively. Conversely, Scotland witnessed 16% less precipitation overall, despite some wetter spots in the east.
The blocked pattern responsible is tied to a high-pressure system lingering slowly across Scandinavia. This configuration steered low-pressure systems from the Atlantic in such a way that the UK remained under persistent south-easterly winds. Regions exposed to these winds, most notably southern England and eastern Scotland, endured near-constant rainy conditions. For example, Cornwall’s Cardinham saw 55 straight days of rainfall. Meanwhile, areas shielded from these winds, like western Scotland and north-west England, encountered drier conditions than usual.
The winter featured four named storms—Bram, Goretti, Ingrid, and Chandra—that greatly influenced weather impacts across the UK. Storm Bram brought widespread disturbances but was classified as “notable but not exceptional” by the Met Office. Storm Goretti, however, caused significant damage, especially in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly, leading to a rare Met Office red warning and emergency mobile alerts. Wind speeds hit 99 mph on St Mary’s, marking the strongest winds there in 47 years. Julie Luscombe of Redruth described the sudden force, recalling, “Almost immediately it went from silence to all my fences being taken down,” and noting the shocking damage sustained during the storm. Subsequent storms Ingrid and Chandra compounded flooding issues and disrupted transport networks in the south and south-west.
While sunniest conditions were scarce—for instance, Aberdeen endured nearly three weeks without sunshine, marking Scotland’s fifth dullest winter since 1910—temperatures overall were slightly above average. Yet cold snaps and notable snowfall occurred, with Scottish ski resorts reporting their best seasons for several years. This variability underscores that despite a warming climate, short-term cold and snowy episodes remain possible.
Regarding climate trends, UK winters have become both warmer and wetter due to human-induced global warming. The Met Office notes a temperature increase of around 1°C since the 1950s, with six of the ten warmest winters recorded since 2000. The frequency of snow and frost has declined, now offering about four fewer weeks of ground frost annually compared to 50 years ago. Conversely, precipitation is on the rise; in the last 260 years of data, six of the ten wettest winter half-years have occurred since 2000. Projected climate models suggest that if greenhouse gas emissions remain high, winters could warm by between 1 and 4.5°C compared to 1990 levels and become up to 30% wetter. This increase is linked to a warmer atmosphere’s enhanced capacity to hold moisture, resulting in heavier and more intense rainfall events in the future
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