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The Green Party’s landmark victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election has introduced a new level of unpredictability to the future of British politics. Before this event, the party had never surpassed 10% of the vote share in any parliamentary by-election, a threshold it reached during the 2023 Somerton and Frome by-election. However, Hannah Spencer’s win marks a historic first as the Green Party’s initial parliamentary by-election triumph.
Spencer’s victory was not only unprecedented but also overwhelming. The party secured 40.7% of the vote, exceeding prior polling predictions by a substantial margin. This result placed the Greens 12 percentage points ahead of the second-placed Reform Party and represented a dramatic increase of 27.5 points on their vote share from the 2024 general election. Meanwhile, Labour, which had maintained an unbeaten record in the area since 1931, slipped to third place with 25.4%—a stark drop from its previous 50.8% in 2024 and one of the largest declines ever recorded in a by-election for the party.
The Conservatives fared even worse, losing their deposit with a mere 1.9% of the vote, marking their poorest by-election performance to date. Excluding the unusual circumstances of the 2024 Rochdale by-election, where Labour’s candidate was disowned and George Galloway secured victory, this election represents the first occasion when neither Labour nor the Conservatives ranked among the top two parties. Both parties now poll consistently at or below 20%, underscoring the weakened state of the traditional Conservative-Labour duopoly that has dominated British politics since World War II.
The results signal significant shifts within the political landscape. The Conservatives face growing challenges from Reform, while Labour’s role as the principal left-wing force is under clear threat from the Greens. Questions are emerging within Labour ranks about Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership following the result. Yet, this by-election result is not simply a reflection of dissatisfaction with Starmer or the government since the 2024 election. Instead, it highlights the erosion of two key pillars of Labour’s historic voter base: support from less affluent working-class citizens and minority communities, both prevalent within the constituency. The party’s decline among working-class voters, first seen in the 2019 general election and continuing through 2024, has benefited Reform, which performed well among the predominantly white working-class electorate in Denton. Meanwhile, Labour’s reduced appeal in areas with a strong Muslim population—partly linked to its stance on Israel’s actions in Gaza—has enabled the Greens to make inroads, especially with support from younger voters and Muslim constituents in the Gorton area.
Reform experienced a narrow defeat, contrasting with its previous narrow victory in Runcorn. Its message, characterized by opposition to immigration and scepticism toward diversity policies, limits its appeal among ethnic minority voters, a demographic significant in Gorton and Denton. Despite gaining 29% of the vote and increasing its support by 15 points, its growth fell short of that seen in Runcorn, where the electoral conditions differed notably. While Reform’s lead over Labour in national polls has slightly lessened, this by-election does not necessarily indicate a significant decline in the party’s future prospects. Attention now turns to whether the Greens’ remarkable performance in Gorton and Denton will translate into improved standings in the national polls ahead of the forthcoming devolved and local elections on 7 May.
John Curtice is Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University and Senior Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe.
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