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The UK is set to experience a notable shift in its weather conditions, with temperatures expected to rise significantly after a period of cold weather marked by frost, ice, and occasional snow on higher ground. Starting from Friday, temperatures could increase by as much as 10 degrees Celsius. This shift comes as a blocking weather pattern, which has maintained the recent chilly spell, gives way to milder air that is forecast to remain over the region for the coming week. However, this warmer trend will also bring additional spells of wet weather arriving from the Atlantic, with the heaviest rainfall predicted over western hilly areas, continuing the ongoing threat of flooding.
Temperatures recently have been quite low, with daytime highs around 4 to 5 degrees Celsius and nighttime lows dipping to as much as minus 9 degrees Celsius in Scotland, compounded by chilling south-easterly winds. The cold air mass is now retreating eastwards, making room for south-westerly winds that will usher in much warmer air from the Atlantic. Over the weekend and extending into next week, daytime temperatures across much of the UK are expected to reach between 10 and 14 degrees Celsius, while nighttime temperatures should generally stay within the 5 to 9 degrees Celsius range, significantly reducing the risk of frost. Notably, Scotland has experienced a prolonged absence of mild days this year, marking the longest delay in reaching 12 degrees Celsius since 1986.
This considerable warming is due to the displacement of a high-pressure block over Scandinavia, which has been prevalent throughout much of 2026 and responsible for the ongoing cold conditions. As this blocking high moves away, milder winds are able to spread across northern Europe. Additionally, the jet stream, which has been positioned over the UK recently, is expected to shift further north intermittently, permitting warmer south-westerly air to dominate the UK’s weather.
Despite the warmer temperatures, the risk of flooding remains a concern due to the persistent rainfall experienced in recent weeks. Certain areas, particularly in Cornwall, have recorded rain for 50 consecutive days. Locations such as Katesbridge in Northern Ireland and Aboyne in Scotland have already accumulated nearly half a year’s worth of rainfall within a few weeks. The upcoming south-westerly winds are anticipated to continue bringing periodic rain and low-pressure systems, with western hilly regions likely to see the heaviest precipitation. This marks a shift for Scotland, where eastern areas have been wetter than usual, but western parts have been relatively dry until now. Melting snow combined with saturated ground may exacerbate flooding risks, especially in England where numerous flood warnings remain active, a situation expected to persist well into March
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