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New official data regarding child poverty in the UK is set for revision as concerns have emerged over the accuracy of household income reporting. For over three decades, child poverty statistics have relied heavily on an annual household survey. However, this survey is believed to have under-reported the amount of benefits that participants actually receive. In response, from the upcoming month, estimates of child poverty will incorporate benefit record data, which is anticipated to reduce the previously reported figures for child poverty dating back to 2018.
The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) emphasizes that while the methodology for measuring child poverty is changing, their dedication to addressing the issue remains steadfast. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has identified reducing child poverty by the 2029 election as a significant priority for his administration. Labour’s recently introduced child poverty reduction strategy, unveiled late last year, was based on statistics showing a peak of 4.5 million children living in poverty. It remains unclear how much the new data collection approach will lower this figure, but research from the Resolution Foundation suggests that the recent years’ child poverty rate may be adjusted downwards.
The gap between benefits reported by households in surveys and the government’s actual welfare payments is considerable, with households in 2023 reporting £190 billion in benefits, while administrative records indicate payments totaling £243 billion. A household is considered to be in relative poverty if its income is below 60% of the median income for that year. Historically, official poverty figures derive from the Family Resources Survey (FRS), which collects data from over 19,000 UK households annually and then extrapolates these findings to the broader population. A 2018 data protection law now permits the DWP to link household survey responses with various administrative datasets—such as welfare payments and tax records—enabling more precise measurement of household income.
Experts acknowledge that under-reporting of benefit income in surveys is a common challenge, although the underestimation has been fairly consistent over the years, allowing governments to draw valid conclusions nonetheless. Research by the Resolution Foundation implies that earlier drops in child poverty, particularly during the Labour government of the 2000s, may have been greater than officially acknowledged. The think tank even suggests that the government led by Tony Blair might have met the child poverty reduction target it previously missed once corrected data is applied. Meanwhile, the Institute for Fiscal Studies cautions that despite policy initiatives like lifting the two-child benefit cap—which could reduce child poverty by 450,000 children by 2029-30—there remains considerable uncertainty about the ultimate impact on measured poverty due to data quality concerns.
In the wider debate, the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) expects that revised surveys will show fewer people living in relative low income than earlier figures suggested. Benjamin Gregg, head of welfare research at the CSJ, points out that many children predicted to exit poverty were likely already above the low-income threshold, highlighting the limitations of income-based poverty measures. He advocates for focusing on material deprivation—whether families lack essential items—as a more meaningful indicator, noting that children in workless households are substantially more likely to experience deprivation. The CSJ calls for policy efforts to tackle poverty’s underlying causes rather than relying solely on relative income approaches.
Responding to these issues, a DWP spokesperson reiterated their commitment to improving children’s lives, highlighting measures such as scrapping the two-child benefit limit, expected to lift 550,000 children out of poverty by the end of the current parliamentary term. Additional efforts include initiatives to reduce living costs—such as increasing the national living wage, cutting average household energy bills by £150, and establishing a £1 billion Crisis and Resilience fund—aimed at preventing families from falling into poverty and creating a “genuine safety net” for vulnerable households
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