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Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership position appears fragile despite recent efforts to strengthen control, especially following calls from the Scottish Labour leader for him to step down. Although the Prime Minister has managed to solidify his standing for now, challenges loom in the weeks ahead that could threaten his hold on power. Many Labour MPs are particularly eyeing the upcoming elections in Scotland, Wales, and local councils in May as a potential moment for Sir Keir to face a leadership challenge should Labour perform poorly.
Amid this tense political environment, the by-election in the Gorton and Denton constituency of Greater Manchester, scheduled for the end of the month, has emerged as another critical test for the Prime Minister. Labour previously secured over half the vote in this area just 18 months ago, but the resignation of MP Andrew Gwynne—who was suspended after offensive text messages surfaced—has opened the seat to a competitive race. The region’s mayor, Andy Burnham, viewed this contest as a pathway back to Westminster and a possible bid for Labour leadership, but was blocked from standing by Sir Keir Starmer and the party’s ruling committee. The party instead selected local councillor Angeliki Stogia as their candidate.
Stogia, who moved to Manchester from Greece 30 years ago, shares a determination to counter the “division” she attributes to Reform UK. During an interview held in a rain-sheltered park gazebo, she expressed the intensity of campaigning in a by-election, with its nonstop hustings, media appearances, and door-knocking. Although initially hesitant, Stogia confirmed her support for Sir Keir Starmer, emphasizing, “I am at the heart of my leaflets,” even though the Labour leader has yet to visit the campaign or appear on her materials. Meanwhile, Reform UK’s candidate, Matt Goodwin, an academic turned GB News presenter with a background studying right-wing politicians, operates from a large campaign hub decorated with union flags and images of Nigel Farage. Goodwin criticized Labour for taking voters for granted and raised concerns about immigration and integration, remarking on his belief that Europe faces “civilizational erasure.”
The constituency of Gorton and Denton is a patchwork of communities that also includes Levenshulme and Burnage, areas once home to the Gallagher brothers of Oasis. This diverse seat struggles with contrasts: some streets feature thriving cafes and shops, while others suffer from shuttered units and high levels of child poverty, twice the national average. Political scientist Rob Ford characterizes this area as “a tale of two Manchesters,” reflecting its divided social and economic makeup. One section is populated with university students, graduates, and a 40% Muslim population, while the other is predominantly white (83%) with many residents working low-paying jobs. Local concerns frequently center on littering and fly-tipping, and stories of social hardship abound, such as that of a young man living with grandparents while facing family instability.
The Green Party is hopeful about its chances here, with candidate Hannah Spencer emphasizing issues like Gaza’s future and prominently displaying Palestinian flags on campaign material. Spencer, a qualified plumber and councillor, candidly discussed past negative sentiments about the area, explaining, “Like a lot of people, it’s taken me a while to become proud of the places I’ve lived.” The Conservative hopeful Charlotte Cadden, a former police officer who once led a team protecting MPs, also remains cautiously optimistic. Although her party finished second in 2019, they slipped to fifth place in 2024. She declined to rule out a win, saying, “I have got 30 years in policing, I’ve worked in this area. I live here… It might be overambitious, but I think we’re going to do very well.” The unpredictability of the result in Gorton and Denton highlights the precarious nature of the Prime Minister’s current position
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