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The prime minister has recently endured what could be described as a political near-death experience but has emerged, at least for the moment, still in office. Throughout this turbulent period, there were multiple moments when it seemed he might be forced to resign imminently. This heightened uncertainty was especially evident as Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s desire to replace Sir Keir Starmer loomed as a potential catalyst for his downfall.
Monday afternoon represented a critical juncture where the situation could have taken a very different turn. Had key figures within the party voiced calls for Sir Keir to step down, it is likely his departure would have been announced by day’s end. However, contrary to this possibility, he instead received a wave of support from both cabinet ministers and different factions across the Labour Party. Ordinarily, declarations of loyalty from cabinet members are routine and unremarkable, but in this case, their volume and visibility highlighted just how precarious his position had been. Social media activity amplified this impression, underscoring the urgency with which he needed backing from any available source.
Despite surviving this episode, the week has left Sir Keir politically weakened and vulnerable. Ahead lie several potentially perilous contests that will test Labour’s standing, including the Gorton and Denton by-election in Greater Manchester occurring in just over two weeks, followed by the Scottish and Welsh devolved elections alongside English local elections scheduled for May. Should Labour perform poorly in any of these electoral events, questions about responsibility and leadership will inevitably intensify. There is a broader sense within the party that concerns about Sir Keir’s leadership had been escalating for months, but it was the shock generated by the revelations concerning Lord Mandelson that quickly pushed the party to a brink moment, sparking debate about whether a leadership change was necessary.
Ultimately, the party has decided to hold off on any move to remove Starmer, driven partly by the fear of triggering further instability. The reluctance to oust an elected leader without a clear replacement reflects an awareness that such internal upheaval would parallel the Conservative Party’s own recent struggles. As one Labour insider remarked, replacing Starmer now would amount to “behaving just like the Conservatives did.” While he attempts to regain control and clarify his government’s direction, an announcement is expected regarding the departure of the country’s most senior civil servant, Chris Wormald. Meanwhile, the fallout from Westminster’s recent scandals is likely to continue creating ripples in political circles for the foreseeable future. In particular, the parliamentary votes demanding the release of documents linked to the Lord Mandelson affair may lead to diplomatic challenges with Washington.
In the midst of this, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who has long been associated with Lord Mandelson, has sought to distance himself by publicly sharing their message exchanges. This move seems aimed at rehabilitating his image and subtly signals his own aspirations for higher office in the future. Such developments underscore that the political repercussions of recent events are far from resolved and will continue to unfold in the weeks and months ahead
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