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Sir Keir Starmer has endured what many consider his most challenging week as prime minister, with some Labour MPs viewing this period as the beginning of an inevitable decline. However, despite rising discontent within Westminster, there is no certainty that his exit from Number 10 will occur imminently. Over the past several months, his leadership has been increasingly scrutinized, reflecting the turbulent political climate that has become familiar in recent years.
When a prime minister is under siege, several critical questions emerge: Is there a specific event that might trigger a complete collapse? What form would such a downfall take? And importantly, is there a clear successor ready to take over? For the current situation, three key developments stand out as potentially damaging to Starmer’s hold on power.
The first concerns the anticipated release of documents related to Peter Mandelson’s appointment as the UK ambassador to the United States. Although the timing of this publication remains uncertain, Starmer maintains that these files will prove Mandelson misrepresented his connections to Epstein during the vetting process. However, the vast amount of material—including correspondence between Mandelson, ministers, and special advisors—could also reveal further uncomfortable details, especially if these implicate Number 10, adding significant pressure on the prime minister.
Next on the horizon is the 26 February by-election in Gorton and Denton. Labour secured this seat comfortably in 2024, but the party now faces a real possibility of losing it, with some fearing an even worse outcome of finishing behind the Greens and Reform UK. Such a defeat would serve as a stark indicator of Labour’s recent struggles resonating with voters, potentially unsettling MPs across the party.
Then there are the elections scheduled for 7 May in Scotland, Wales, and English local councils, which many see as a pivotal moment. Expectations are high that Labour will lose control in Wales for the first time since devolution, possibly slipping to third place behind Plaid Cymru and Reform. In Scotland, hopes of gaining power appear to be diminishing, with Labour perhaps falling behind the SNP and Reform as well. Local council elections in England also threaten major losses. Should Starmer still be prime minister when these results are announced, the full scope of Labour’s electoral problems will become clear—and the repercussions could be severe.
Despite this fraught environment, removing Starmer is not straightforward. There is no quick or simple method for Labour MPs to oust the leader. A direct leadership challenge could take weeks, especially if he opts to contest. Alternative strategies like a confidence vote or coordinated moves by senior figures exist but are no surefire remedies. Complicating matters further is the absence of an obvious successor with broad support.
Potential contenders each face notable drawbacks. Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s close association with Mandelson might deter some MPs. Angela Rayner, favored by segments of the left, is under ongoing investigation by HM Revenue and Customs regarding her second home tax affairs, with no resolution in sight. Other names such as John Healey, Alok Sharma (not mentioned in the original but commonly known), or even Ed Miliband have been mentioned as steady hands, although Miliband’s return is widely seen as unlikely. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is also occasionally brought up. The wide-open field generates uncertainty, leaving many MPs anxious about who might lead the party next and whether a swift leadership change could replace Starmer with a less palatable candidate from either wing of the party.
There is also a recognition among Labour MPs of the risks of triggering a leadership contest amidst ongoing international instability, including the war in Ukraine and unpredictable global diplomacy. While discontent is palpable—exemplified by the concerns MPs express upon returning from their constituencies—a leadership crisis in the party could be prolonged. For now, Sir Keir Starmer remains in Number 10, with his future uncertain but far from decided
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