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The NHS continues to maintain a heightened state of vigilance regarding this year’s flu season, although current data suggests that the recent surge in cases has, for now, plateaued. According to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), the spread of influenza within communities has stabilized, and the increase in hospital admissions has begun to slow. At present, around 3,000 patients in England are hospitalized with the virus, a figure significantly lower than the previously feared estimate of 5,000 to 8,000 cases predicted by NHS chief executive Sir Jim Mackay. These developments raise questions about the overall severity of this flu season and how it compares with previous years.
One notable difference in the 2025 influenza season is that the virus began circulating several weeks earlier than usual. When individuals present influenza-like symptoms at their GP or hospital, they undergo testing for multiple respiratory viruses, including influenza, COVID-19, and RSV. The UKHSA tracks the percentage of these tests that return positive results for flu. This autumn and early winter, flu-positive test rates climbed rapidly, but recent figures indicate a leveling off at a medium intensity. However, experts caution that the flu’s behavior is unpredictable; a temporary reduction in cases can quickly be followed by another spike. This pattern has been observed not only in England but across the other UK nations as well.
Virologists have linked the earlier resurgence to the dominance of the H3N2 strain this year. Historically, flu seasons led by H3N2 tend to be more severe, especially among older adults who face higher hospitalization rates. H3N2 has not been the predominant strain in the UK for the past three years, which may result in reduced population immunity. Additionally, a genetic mutation detected in the virus during the summer might have contributed to the early start of this season’s spread. Despite media descriptions labeling this outbreak as “super-flu,” experts warn against the term, emphasizing that it simply reflects a slightly more contagious flu variant rather than a more dangerous or treatment-resistant virus. As Professor Lawrence Young, a molecular oncology expert at the University of Warwick, explains, “It is misleading and a bit frightening to call it super flu; it’s just a flu variant that is clearly a little bit more infectious than normal.”
Hospitalization figures for flu follow community trends but tend to lag behind due to the time it takes for serious symptoms to develop. Last week, England reported 3,140 flu hospital admissions, marking an 18% increase from the previous week, though this was after a steep 55% rise the week before. These statistics vary regionally, with some areas showing declines and others still experiencing sharp increases. Those aged over 85 remain especially vulnerable, being five times more likely to require hospital care compared to the general population. While comparisons with past flu seasons are complicated by improvements in testing and reporting, historical data show that recent decades have brought particularly deadly flu outbreaks. For instance, the 2017-18 season saw an estimated 25,000 flu-related deaths in England, exacerbated by a cold snap and an influenza B strain. An even more severe outbreak occurred in 2014-15, with about 35,000 deaths attributed to an H3N2-dominated season and a vaccine mismatch.
Looking ahead, health professionals urge the public to continue getting vaccinated against flu. Despite genetic changes in the circulating virus, the current vaccine is expected to provide effective protection, particularly in preventing severe illness and hospitalizations. The NHS offers free flu vaccinations to people over 65, young children, pregnant women, those with certain medical conditions, carers, and frontline health and social care workers. Others can obtain the vaccine from pharmacies for a fee ranging between £15 and £25. As of mid-December, more than 70% of older individuals and care home residents had received their flu jab, yet vaccination rates remain lower in other groups. Notably, only 45% of frontline NHS workers in England have been vaccinated this season, signaling ongoing efforts are necessary to improve uptake and reduce the impact of influenza in the population
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