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The NHS is currently confronting a severe challenge as hospital admissions for flu have surged by 55% within just one week. Sir Jim Mackey, NHS England’s chief executive, has warned that the number of patients occupying hospital beds due to influenza could reach between 5,000 and 8,000 by the weekend. Meanwhile, experts from the King’s Fund health think tank note that conversations about intense and prolonged flu seasons have become increasingly common in recent years. This prompts the question: how does the flu season in 2025 differ from previous years, and which groups are most impacted by what is being referred to as “super flu”?
A notable factor setting this season apart is the earlier than usual onset of flu cases, with the virus beginning to spread about a month sooner than in recent years. UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) data first showed this trend in October. Flu testing at GP practices and hospitals includes screening for influenza, Covid-19, and RSV, with UKHSA tracking the proportion of tests positive for flu to gauge community infection trends. Virologists attribute this earlier start to genetic changes in the flu strain predominantly circulating this year, known as H3N2. Although the term ‘super-flu’ is not a scientific term and does not imply increased severity or treatment difficulty, this version of the virus is relatively unfamiliar to the public, reducing herd immunity and facilitating its spread.
Children and young adults have been disproportionately affected by this season’s flu outbreak. Due to their still-developing immune systems and close-contact environments such as schools and universities, these groups are more vulnerable and have shown a higher percentage of positive flu tests. Measures reminiscent of Covid-19 protocols, such as limiting singing during assemblies and installing sanitisation stations, have been reinstated in some schools, and one school in Caerphilly even temporarily closed. This demographic is particularly concerning because infected children can bring the virus home and potentially pass it on to elderly family members who face significantly greater risks from influenza complications.
The rise in flu cases is adding further strain to the NHS during the winter months. Data indicate that hospital bed occupancy by flu patients has increased sharply, with an average of 2,660 patients last week compared to 1,717 the week before. Elderly individuals aged over 85 face a hospitalization risk five times higher than the general population. Although current hospital admissions reflect infections from up to a week prior, the NHS is closely monitoring the situation as new cases continue arriving at accident and emergency departments. With around 105,000 hospital beds available in England and a typical winter occupancy rate of 95%, a rise to over 5,000 flu patients needing beds could severely strain healthcare resources. Sir Jim Mackey’s warning underscores the potential for the hospital system to be stretched to its limits if the situation worsens.
Health professionals continue to urge vulnerable groups to receive the flu vaccine, emphasizing that it remains effective despite the virus’s genetic changes this season, especially in preventing severe illness. The vaccine is provided free on the NHS to people over 65, young children, pregnant women, those with certain health conditions, carers, and frontline health and social care workers. Others can access the vaccine through pharmacies, typically for around £15 to £25. However, as of late November, only just over 40% of individuals in at-risk groups had gotten their flu jab this year. Similarly, flu vaccination rates among NHS staff in England have plateaued at approximately 42%, following a decline since the Covid-19 pandemic
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