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Sir Keir Starmer and his government have faced a challenging few weeks, marked by leadership speculation, a turbulent Budget period, and a series of damaging leaks and policy reversals. The situation has provoked concern among some Scottish Labour MPs, with reports emerging that three of them privately expressed fears about the party suffering a heavy defeat in the upcoming Scottish Parliament elections scheduled for May. These MPs, speaking anonymously to the Times, pointed to the prime minister’s low popularity as a significant factor in their worries.
Despite these claims, another Scottish Labour MP dismissed suggestions of a leadership plot as nonsense, though in doing so they admitted that the prime minister’s public standing was about as favourable as an unpleasant obstacle encountered during a walk. This mix of internal briefing and pushback comes as Sir Keir Starmer prepares to visit Scotland, with less than six months remaining until voters head to the polls. The question lingers about the mood within the Scottish Labour Westminster group—are they close to revolt or maintaining stability amid the criticism?
Scottish Labour MPs typically meet roughly every two weeks; their last session coincided with the Budget day, so there has been no formal forum yet to address recent negative media coverage. One MP shared that when they do convene again, frustrations will be high, cautioning against narratives suggesting total electoral collapse. While tensions between the Scottish party and the UK government still exist, particularly after a chaotic Budget rollout, there is some satisfaction that the controversial two-child benefit cap has been lifted. Yet dissatisfaction remains widespread—several Scottish Labour MPs have described the prime minister as “terrible” and labelled the government’s conduct during the recent Budget briefings as “incompetent” and “mind-blowingly stupid.”
However, such harsh assessments do not automatically translate into a call for Starmer’s removal. Within Labour, especially among Scottish MPs, removing a sitting leader is practically unprecedented. The party has never formally challenged or ousted one of its prime ministers, a stark contrast with the Conservative Party’s recent history of confidence votes against their leaders. Moreover, party insiders argue that pushing for a leadership contest ahead of the May elections would be “politically inept,” questioning whether it makes sense to divert attention from scrutinising the Scottish National Party’s record by embroiling the party in internal conflict.
Even if a challenge were pursued, Labour’s rules require the backing of 80 MPs to trigger a leadership contest, and the incumbent leader automatically appears on the ballot, allowing Starmer to defend his position. Several Scottish Labour MPs reportedly foresee a leadership challenge at some point, describing it as a question of “when, not if.” Nevertheless, the influence of Scottish MPs in any such movement is uncertain. A significant portion—15 out of 37—now hold frontbench roles, including senior positions such as Scottish Secretary and several parliamentary private secretaries. While this does not guarantee loyalty, it represents a substantial degree of investment in the current leadership.
The broader strategy from Scottish Labour appears to be focused on sidelining Starmer from the upcoming Holyrood election campaign. Party leaders are keen to ensure that Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, is the primary figurehead, avoiding distractions from Westminster politics. Senior figures emphasise that every moment Sarwar spends engaging with UK government controversies is a lost opportunity to critique the SNP’s long tenure in power. As one insider succinctly put it, “If the election is fought as a referendum on Keir Starmer and the UK government, we lose. If the election is fought as a referendum on the SNP’s record of 19 years in government, we win. It’s that simple.” Starmer’s involvement in the campaign will therefore be limited, with no regular visits to Scotland or appearances in Scottish Labour’s political broadcasts, despite the potential significance of the elections for his own political future.
While there is indeed concern within Scottish Labour about the party’s prospects in May, confidence remains rooted in past successes. The party surprised many with its victory in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election last June, overcoming significant competition and securing the seat by a narrow margin of 602 votes. This success has been credited to the party’s efficient campaign organisation, volunteer engagement, and sophisticated voter targeting — advantages bolstered by Labour’s status as the UK government party and the resources that come with it. The campaign in that by-election included knocking on around 8,000 doors, nearly matching the number of votes won.
Nevertheless, Scottish Labour recognises the difference between a by-election focused on local concerns and a nationwide contest shaped by broader political currents. One MP acknowledged that while local issues and candidate appeal dominate in by-elections,
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