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The recent history of the Scottish National Party was filled with turmoil not too long ago. After a crushing defeat in the general election, where they saw their number of MPs dwindle from 48 to just nine, the party also went through three leaders in quick succession: Nicola Sturgeon, Humza Yousaf, and John Swinney. This rapid turnover was reminiscent of the challenges faced by the Conservative Party in recent years.
Additionally, the SNP was embroiled in a high-profile police investigation into its finances, which included Sturgeon but ultimately resulted in no charges being brought against her. The party was also embroiled in bitter disputes over gender identity issues. Despite being in power in Scotland since 2007, the SNP seemed to be facing electoral headwinds just before the crucial elections to the Scottish Parliament in the coming year.
However, there has been a shift in fortunes for the SNP, with John Swinney bringing stability to a party that was previously in disarray. Support for the party’s rivals, including Labour, Reform, and others, has also splintered. Recent polling data indicates that while Labour’s support has significantly decreased in Scotland, the SNP has marginally improved its standing, with Reform emerging as a potential second-place party after the SNP. The fragmentation in other parties has put the SNP in a strong position, despite losing some points in the constituency vote.
Looking ahead to the upcoming elections, the mood among SNP members and senior figures is optimistic and competitive. The party is not only hoping for victory but is even discussing the possibility of securing an outright majority. Achieving victory, regardless of whether a majority is secured, would mark a significant milestone for the SNP, potentially marking its third consecutive decade in power. However, securing a majority is crucial for the SNP’s strategy to push for another independence referendum, as demonstrated by their past success under Alex Salmond’s leadership. While challenges and uncertainties remain, the SNP remains focused on its goal of securing a majority and pushing for another referendum if successful
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