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Autumn has made a dramatic entrance with an unsettled start to September, as wind and rain are expected to sweep in from the Atlantic on Wednesday. This weather change will bring about a drop in temperature and a risk of thunderstorms. The unsettled weather will persist into the weekend, with the possibility of deeper areas of low pressure developing in the North Atlantic in the coming days. It is too early to determine the exact impact of these lows, including whether any will develop into a named storm, with the potential for the first storm of the season to be called ‘Storm Amy.’
The jet stream, a fast-moving ribbon of air in the upper atmosphere, is forecasted to shift south of the UK this week and increase in speed. This shift will enable developing areas of low pressure to move eastwards, leading to rain and wind across all areas. Throughout much of spring and summer, the jet stream remained further north in a blocked pattern, keeping rain-bearing weather fronts at bay. However, as the transition from summer to autumn takes place, a more westerly influence in the weather is expected as the blocked pattern dissipates, allowing Atlantic weather systems to move in.
Looking ahead into the autumn months, most forecast models suggest an increased likelihood of a ‘wetter than average’ period from September to November in the UK. However, seasonal forecasts contain a degree of uncertainty and should be viewed as probable trends rather than definitive conditions. While a repeat of September 2024’s record-breaking rainfall, which led to flooding in 10 English counties, is improbable, the UK will likely experience more precipitation in the coming months.
The UK has experienced its sunniest spring and warmest summer on record this year, leading to drought conditions in several regions of England and Wales. While this week’s rainfall will aid in replenishing river levels and soil moisture, it will take time for catchments, reservoirs, and aquifers to recover fully. Sustained rainfall throughout autumn and winter will be necessary to restore water resources. As climate change alters weather patterns, the UK is anticipated to have wetter, warmer winters and hotter, drier summers, increasing the complexity of the link between climate change and drought due to hydrological and societal factors
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