Sir John Curtice: How Reform's capture of the Brexit vote could be enough to win an election

Though the profile of those inclined to vote Reform is distinctive, it is perhaps less unique than is sometimes suggested. In the British Social Attitudes survey, the equivalent figures for the population as a whole were, respectively, 41%, 30%, 36%, 44%, and 12%. So while Reform appeals more strongly to those with such views, those views are broadly shared by many.

As the statistics suggest, then, Reform seems likely to be capable of holding on to the large part of its vote for as long as Brexit remains a major issue. This should continue to distinguish it from Labour and the Conservatives who are appealing to a more diverse set of voters.

Moreover, Reform can also depend on the support of a small but important body of younger voters. According to Opinium, one in six of the party’s current voters in the wake of the 2021 election were young people aged between 18 and 24. That was a much greater share than could be found among those backing Labour or the Conservatives.

While many of these younger voters may be initially attracted to Reform by its Brexiteer credentials, there is evidence that they have other reasons for supporting the party. According to YouGov, many were backing Reform because they felt it best represented their views on a range of other issues, including healthcare and the economy.

This means that Reform’s current support base is by no means limited to older, more traditional voters. It is also broader than that of some might protest parties that depend on older voters. The party is likely to attract some of these younger voters for some time.

How enduring will Reform’s support prove to be? History teaches us that the success of minor parties is usually fleeting. If we look back over the post-war period, we see parties like UKIP, the Monster Raving Loony Party, and the Referendum Party rising briefly to prominence before fading from view.

And there are clear signs that even Reform could be susceptible to such a fate. Its history has been marked by rapid rises and equally swift falls.

However, the landscape of British politics is changing. As we have seen, more people than ever before are willing to consider voting for a party other than Labour or the Conservatives. Reform is thus operating within an environment that might be more favourable than in the past.

In the next parliament, we are likely to witness more contests in which Reform emerges as a serious contender. The party’s supporters applaud Farage and his party for their ability to articulate the discontent of many voters. They value Farage for his willingness to address issues ignored by the main parties.

But will these conditions remain until the next election? Whether Reform will go from strength to strength thus remains an open question.