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In Pembrokeshire, a rural county in Wales, there is a concerning trend of young people leaving the area, leading to a decline in population. The former council leader, Councillor John Davies, described the situation as unsustainable as schools are experiencing a significant drop in pupil numbers, while doctors’ surgeries are becoming more crowded. The Welsh government has acknowledged the challenge posed by demographic changes and is closely monitoring the situation in the county.
Councillor Davies is part of a working group examining the future of schools in Pembrokeshire. Data from the council reveals a 19% decrease in primary school pupils in the Preseli area between 2015 and 2024, and a 6.6% decline in Tenby over the same period. Davies emphasized the need for investment in rural areas to prevent a decline similar to what industrial communities in south Wales experienced in the 1980s. He highlighted the disparity in investment between urban areas and rural regions like Pembrokeshire.
The potential closure of schools like Ysgol Clydau in Tegryn and Manorbier VC School in Tenby has sparked fear among parents like Caroline Farnden, who expressed concerns about losing the community feel if these institutions shut down. Fellow parent Steven Chambers raised worries about the impact of closures on the area’s population, suggesting that it may deter younger families from residing in the region. These closures could exacerbate the existing trend of an ageing population within rural areas.
Welsh government projections indicate a significant drop in the number of pupils across the country by 2040, with Pembrokeshire already experiencing a 12% decrease since 1996. As rural areas face challenges related to demographic shifts, stakeholders such as Laura Doel from the NAHT and Amanda Hill-Dixon from the Wales Centre for Public Policy are calling for strategic interventions to address the evolving needs of these communities. A population taskforce, similar to one implemented by the Scottish government in 2019, may be necessary to navigate the complex issues surrounding rural depopulation in Wales
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