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The Met Office has forecasted a higher likelihood of a hotter-than-normal summer with an increased chance of heatwaves for the UK in 2025. This prediction follows an exceptionally sunny, dry, and warm spring season. The meteorological summer, which spans from 1 June to 31 August, is predicted to be twice as likely to be hotter than the average.
Long-range forecasts, like the one provided by the Met Office, offer insights into general weather patterns over a three-month period without the ability to predict specific daily weather conditions. Various global forecast centers have all indicated a common message – the UK is expected to experience a summer that is hotter than normal, with more than double the usual chance of it being so.
The expected warmth for the upcoming summer is largely attributed to human-induced climate change, as no specific weather patterns are currently dominant. Additionally, a marine heatwave in the seas around the UK may contribute to boosting temperatures during the season. This added warmth and moisture could potentially lead to more intense summer storms, increasing the risk of heatwaves and their associated impacts.
Low reservoir levels and reduced river flows have become widespread across the UK due to below-average spring rainfall. While water companies are hoping for a wet summer to replenish water sources and avoid restrictions on water usage, the seasonal forecasts are somewhat ambiguous about the expected rainfall. Most forecasts suggest near-average precipitation for the UK as a whole, with hints of above-average rainfall in the first half of June, but others lean towards a slightly drier season overall
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