Immigration is the albatross around UK politics

The answer, say experts, lies in the consequences of this period of social, economic and cultural churn – and the politics that it has engendered.

“In the last 60 years there have been two times when public opinion on immigration was at a higher pitch than it is now,” says Stephen Lynch of the Migration Observatory. “That’s during the period of the Commonwealth immigration from the ’50s through the ’70s, and after the Abuja Declaration in 1969 when East African Asians were expelled from Uganda by Idi Amin. Those are probably both more intense periods for public concern on immigration. But what’s different about now is that you have the backdrop of the Brexit vote. Then you have the pandemic, which has heightened those concerns about health and access to public services”.

These changes in public mood don’t exist in isolation from the economy, either. When times are tough, people worry more about jobs – and about who they think of as “newcomers” taking those jobs. Unemployment has in many ways been kept artificially low during the coronavirus pandemic by the furlough scheme. As the Chancellor Rishi Sunak starts to withdraw the scheme, real levels of unemployment may rise, and with them popular concern about migrants in the job market.

So Sir Keir is not the only political leader grappling with the conundrum of immigration. The Conservatives under Boris Johnson promised to reduce migration to the tens of thousands. They are still committed to that pledge, even though free movement from the EU ended on 31 December.

But there are indications that the politics of immigration may be changing. As concerns continue, so does the backlash. After a survey last month from Hope Not Hate showed 50% of respondents thought immigration was detrimental to the country, the Mayor of London Sadiq Khan felt moved to defend it. “Our story is of immigration and integration,” he said, “our story is of how people come to London and our country to make a contribution, and how their children and grandchildren do as well”.

Attitudes, Sunder Katwala suggests, could go either way. “How we live together well in a diverse and dynamic society,” he says, “is the 21st-century grand challenge. There is more scope for success now than there has been for 15 or 20 years – and there is more scope for it all to go wrong”.

“Attitudes could go either way. How we live together well in a diverse and dynamic society is the 21st-century grand challenge.”

So, why does this matter?

Understanding the history of political discourse around immigration in the UK is crucial to understanding the nuances of public opinion on the issue today. The attitudes and policies of political leaders, as well as the socioeconomic context, all play a role in shaping public perceptions of immigration.