If MPs in England and Wales vote for assisted dying to become legal, a review of the policy suggests that the number of assisted deaths could surpass 4,000 in the 10th year after the law is enacted. The estimate is part of the official impact assessment conducted by civil servants to provide information to MPs while they deliberate on the matter.
Initially, it is expected that the number of individuals seeking assisted dying would be low, but this figure is projected to increase over time. According to the impact assessment, the total number of assisted deaths is predicted to range from 164 to 787 in the first half-year of the service, and between 1,042 and 4,559 in year 10 if the policy commences in October 2029.
The upper estimate of approximately 4,500 assisted deaths would still only constitute less than 1% of all deaths, as stated in the document. The financial implications of the proposed policy are also outlined in the impact assessment, highlighting potential costs and savings associated with implementing assisted dying.
As the bill is set to return to the House of Commons later in the month, a crucial vote is expected to take place in mid-June to determine whether the bill will become law. The potential savings for the NHS within the first six months of implementing assisted dying could range from around £919,000 to £10.3 million, including various healthcare costs that patients opting for assisted death would no longer require.
While there are anticipated savings for the NHS, there would also be costs associated with staffing an assisted dying service, training expenses, and panel reviews for each case. The full impact of these costs and savings remains uncertain, with the Department of Health and Social Care emphasizing that the government has a neutral stance on the issue
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