Strategy and risk sees John Swinney seal Budget success


John Swinney’s government has managed to gain support from three different opposition parties for its budget. This is a notable achievement, given the SNP’s lack of a majority vote in Holyrood, and it marks the party’s first budget since the Greens were ousted from government. All parties will vote in its favour, except for the Conservatives who will vote against it. The Greens, the Liberal Democrats and Alba’s sole MSP are all expected to extend their support towards the SNP in voting for this budget, while Labour will not take any measures to resist its passage.

In the past, it would have been difficult to pass a budget as this could have brought down the present administration, leading to an election. However, instead of going down this path, the finance secretary Shona Robison and her team has worked wonders with their political strategy, making it possible for the SNP budget to achieve such support from opposition parties. Previous finance secretaries, including John Swinney, and his deputy Kate Forbes, struggled to gain such a rainbow of support since 2014, a marked contrast to Shona Robison’s success in building such a coalition.

There are a few reasons why opposition parties were on board with passing the budget. For one, fast forwarding to an election could be politically risky as different parties may take the blame for the government’s shortcomings. Another reason is the possibility of a financial crisis, as releasing only one-twelfth of the previous year’s budget a month without the increase from the Treasury due to the lack of a new budget would be chaotic. This could cause difficulty in paying public service workers like teachers, healthcare workers and law enforcement, among others. Lastly, the SNP’s political strategy for convincing the opposition parties was to include certain Scottish Labour policies in their draft budget, such as reinstating winter fuel payments for pensioners and removing the two-child cap on benefits. These policies helped to encourage Scottish Labour’s support as they would be able to prop up their political stance and potentially win more votes.

Thus, the Scottish government has convinced the opposition parties to vote in favour of its budget. It will be interesting to see whether the coalition between opposition parties and the SNP continues in the future, or if it marks a one-off achievement for now. Only time will tell whether such efforts will help the SNP stay in power in the future

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