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Climate scientists are increasingly worried that the United Kingdom and northwest Europe could face extreme drops in temperatures and freezing winters as a response to climate change. The phenomenon could occur because of a weakening, or collapse, of ocean currents that bring warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic. The Arctic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) system is responsible for distributing energy across the planet, warming cool regions south of Greenland and Iceland and the Nordic Seas. However, the system seems to become weaker. There are indicators that it could have already slowed by around 15% in the past couple of centuries.
But the warming of water in the north Atlantic due to extra freshwater from a melting Greenland ice sheet and more rainfall, could be a possible cause of the Amoc’s weakening and a shift in this loop could lead to an ultimate, irreversible collapse. While it could take a century or more for impacts to play out, temperatures in Northern Europe could fall by a couple of degrees per decade. There could be global consequences such as humanitarian catastrophes, particularly in West Africa and India.
Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) expected the Amoc system to weaken this century, scientists have found that Amoc may pass a tipping point in the coming decades, beyond which full collapse would be inevitable. More than 40 leading ocean and climate scientists signed an open letter in October 2021 calling for wider recognition of the “greatly underestimated” risks.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is essential to reduce the risks. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions can prevent further irreparable damage to the climate and the impact of freezing winters in the north. Government officials have not assessed the effect of any (Amoc) slowing or collapse on economic planning, thereby underlining a glaring national security blind spot
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