A public inquiry has heard that a mortality spike at the neonatal unit in the Countess of Chester Hospital where nurse Lucy Letby murdered babies in 2015 was not severe enough to warrant an external investigation. Sir David Spiegelhalter, emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Cambridge, testified about the Countess of Chester Hospital’s mortality rate where Letby committed the murders. The inquiry was set up to probe the circumstances surrounding Letby’s crimes, who began her attack and killed seven babies between June 2015 and June 2016. The nurse also attempted to murder seven other babies.
The inquiry heard that there had been eight deaths in 2015 and five in the first half of 2016, while between 2010 and 2014, there had only been between one and three per year. Sir David assessed the 2015 figures, stating, “that would generally be considered sufficient to trigger an alert and someone should look at this locally, but it’s not extreme enough to be considered an outlier.”
Sir David informed the inquiry that he would anticipate seeing, at least once a year, a “signal” similar to the 2015 mammoth mortality figures in one of the UK’s 150 neonatal units “by chance alone.” The veteran statistician explained that outliers were “something that you are pretty convinced is not just normal variation… there is some special cause behind it.” Sir David pointed out that no statistical monitoring system could reveal the reason or reasons why something had happened.
Letby, now 35, began work at the Countess of Chester Hospital in January 2012 and went on to murder seven babies between June 2015 and June 2016. In 2019, she was convicted at Manchester Crown Court of murdering infants and attempting to murder others; two attempts were focused on one victim. Currently, Letby is serving 15 whole-life sentences. The public inquiry is being chaired by Lady Justice Thirlwall. She is hearing its final week of evidence at Liverpool Town Hall. Her judgment will likely be released in the autumn.
Additional reporting by the Press Association
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