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The annual Christmas tradition of dreaming of a white Christmas is well underway in the UK, but what are the actual chances of experiencing one this year? While longer-range weather models are still uncertain, it appears that the country is likely to experience unsettled weather throughout the festive season. Parts of Scotland are predicted to see the highest likelihood of snowfall, with the potential for sleet or snow across Scotland’s hilly areas. Northern and eastern Scotland, northern England, north Wales, and the north-west Midlands are the most probable regions to witness a “white Christmas Day”, according to climatological data.
White Christmases are defined by the Met Office as the observation of a snowflake falling anywhere in the UK on 25 December. This occurs on more than 50% of Christmas Days, so it is likely that at least one location in the UK will experience a white Christmas. However, the idyllic Christmas card image of widespread lying snow is a rarity, only occurring four times since 1960, most recently in 2010, when over 80% of weather stations reported lying snow on the ground on Christmas Day.
Predicting snowfall in the UK is notoriously difficult. Weather forecasters consider several variables, including the expected source of air, such as Arctic air masses, which are most likely to bring snow, and the intensity of incoming rainfall, which could turn to snow if temperatures are low enough. Supercomputers use many models to forecast data that generate potential scenarios around ten days in advance, and forecasters use their skill and experience to firm up details with roughly five days until the event.
One might expect that as average temperatures rise, the likelihood of a white Christmas would decrease. However, this is not entirely accurate for the UK. According to a study by Helsinki University, some areas in the country have seen an increase in the chance of snowfall during the festive period, with southern and eastern England seeing a 10% increase in likelihood from 1991 to 2020, while the likelihood of snow has decreased by 30% in the Scottish Highlands over the same period.
In summary, predicting the likelihood of a white Christmas is difficult, and it remains uncertain this year. Nonetheless, it seems the UK’s chances of a white Christmas will most likely be found in Scotland and the UK’s northern regions. Keep up-to-date with the latest forecasts on the BBC website, radio, TV, and app to stay informed
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