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As colder air moves in from the Arctic, some parts of the UK have the potential to see wintry weather, although forecasting snow is not straightforward even for experienced weather professionals. Some sensationalist headlines have suggested the entire country is set to freeze, but forecasters say the situation is far more uncertain than such scare-mongering would suggest. While some forecast models suggest an extended cold period followed by significant snowfall, many sources say potential remains for the forecast to change drastically over the coming days.
Despite uncertainty about snowfall, some aspects of the weather are more predictable. Certainly, temperatures across the UK will be below average for this time of year, with maximums of around 3-8°C expected on Sunday. Furthermore, Monday morning could well be marked by a widespread ground frost as temperatures approach freezing. This cooler period, however, comes as Brits have enjoyed very little sunshine so far this November.
As for snow, we can assume that some wintry showers will fall across northern England and Scotland, while higher mountaintops can expect to see snow. However, it is difficult for forecasters to predict what locations will see how much snow in the days ahead. There is a great deal of variation between various publicly available forecast models, each of which uses diverse mathematical and physical approaches. Predictions are less reliable as the range of potential events moves further into the future; with climate change affecting weather patterns, even short-term forecasts can be less reliable than those of the past.
That being said, it is important to note that long-range forecasts remain useful. Even if accuracy varies, these predictions can act as appraisals of the scientific evidence and can now be acted upon with greater confidence than before. As meteorologists continue to summarise such information, they gradually gain a more comprehensive understanding of weather patterns and how best to summarise the most likely future scenarios.
Whilst all in the profession agree that the science of weather forecasting has improved dramatically over the decades, the fact remains that it is still not a foolproof practice. As we move towards winter, there will undoubtedly be increased interest in reports related to snow, but it is important to take each report with an open and critical mind and to remember the limitations forecasters are working within. Above all, the most important message for Brits to take from this weather update may well be that it is wise to be prepared for the cooler, more inclement weather that lies ahead
Read the full article from The BBC here: Read More
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