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New data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that deaths in the UK are now outnumbering births for the first time in nearly 50 years, with 16,300 more deaths than births occurring within the year ending June 2023. Scotland and Wales have been particularly impacted, with more deaths than births over the period, while England and Northern Ireland experienced the opposite situation, albeit with a smaller margin. Despite this, the UK’s population has increased by 662,400 people in the same period, making it the largest increase since the 1970s.
International migration was identified as the main contributor to this population increase, which has helped offset the low birth rate and ageing demographic of post-war birth cohorts. The UK’s net international migration was estimated to be 677,300 for the year ending June 2023, and without this inflow, the population would have fallen. Downing Street has confirmed that Sir Keir Starmer has been clear on the need to reduce net migration, ensuring that legal migration is not a substitute for addressing skill shortages in the UK.
Comparing regions, Scotland recorded 19,000 more deaths than births within the year ending June 2023, while Wales recorded 9,500 more. In comparison, there were 9,800 more births than deaths in England, and 2,500 more in Northern Ireland. Consequently, this new data suggests that the UK has experienced a negative natural change in population, beginning with this period for the first time since 1976, with the exception of the Covid pandemic year of 2020.
It is expected that the number of deaths in the country will continue to rise as an older generation of adults ages and dies. Professor Sarah Harper, Director of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, states that this negative change is to be expected given low birth rates and an ageing population. The ONS projects that the UK’s population could reach almost 74 million by 2036, driven by a projected net migration of 6.1 million people and around 500,000 more births than deaths
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