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Westminster is awaiting a defining period over the coming weeks, with the government’s budget set to be laid out at the end of October and the Conservatives electing a new leader, who will succeed Rishi Sunak as leader of the opposition. Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are the current contenders, canvassing MPs for support. The next two days of voting are seen as critical in securing momentum for the final decision on 13 October.
Mel Stride managed to secure 16 votes in the previous round and in a party of only 121 MPs, this number of votes is significant. Tugendhat’s team are apparently delighted with newspaper coverage, but even they acknowledge he is likely to be the next to be eliminated. Cleverly, by contrast, has momentum, boosted by Stride’s endorsement and comments that he “won conference”. However, he also faces criticism for triggering the process which has seen the UK relinquish sovereignty of the Chagos Islands.
The next two days will see a contest between four candidates slim to three and then three to two, with the wider party membership selecting the final leader. The two standing will have the golden tickets to reach the final vote, whilst the loser will be out of the running. Jenrick’s team, who have had confidence and even swagger throughout the race, push back against critics and defend withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights. They believe they will be one of the final two candidates, alongside Cleverly.
Badenoch’s team have gained endorsement from former cabinet minister, David Davis, and Florida’s governor, Ron De Santis, but acknowledge that Cleverly performed well at conference. If Badenoch fails to make the final two, there could be an adverse reaction among her supporters, who expect her to be a strong contender. The results, which will be announced on 13 October, could be defining for the next election and for shaping what the government’s opposition will look like
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