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The Independent Schools Council (ISC) has reported that private schools across the UK are experiencing a drop in the number of Year 7 pupils starting this year. Some member schools have seen up to a 4.6% fall in Year 7 pupils, which is the biggest seen in that year group for at least five years. It is unclear what the cause of this is, but experts suggest that the declining birth rate and the high cost of living could be impacting attendance.
However, the ISC blames the falling numbers on parents choosing not to send their children to private schools due to the recent announcement that value-added tax (VAT) would be charged from January 2022. Reportedly, parents at Hulme Grammar School in Oldham will be expected to pay an additional 20% fee from January, as the school cannot afford to absorb the VAT changes. It currently charges a fee of up to £14,200 a year.
One other factor contributing to the decline of the number of private schools’ pupils could be that parents are reconsidering if private schools are value for money. Luke Sibieta, from the Institute of Fiscal Studies, says that the costs of private schools have been increasing above inflation over the last decade. The government, however, does not expect the VAT policy to impact the number of pupils attending private schools.
Private schools are concerned about the drop in pupils as they believe this is just the beginning, with the ISC expecting more children to leave the system next September. Although, the Institute of Fiscal Studies has commented that the impact of the VAT changes is “likely to be small and concentrated,” estimating that between 20,000 and 40,000 extra pupils (3-7%) will move from the private to the state sector over the next several years due to the new policy
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