The junior doctors' strikes may be over. But is trouble ahead?

the-junior-doctors'-strikes-may-be-over.-but-is-trouble-ahead?
The junior doctors' strikes may be over. But is trouble ahead?

After months of strikes and negotiations, the British Medical Association recommended that its 50,000 junior doctor members accept a new offer from the government. The pay dispute was the longest running and most intense in NHS history and led to hundreds of thousands of cancelled appointments and operations. The government’s final offer included an average pay increase of just over 22% over two years in England, which combined two years of pay rises. The costs of the new proposal are around £350m, much lower than the cost of NHS strikes which amount to approximately £1.7bn.

After just three days of negotiations, Health Secretary Wes Streeting outlined his final offer to the BMA delegation. This was the first time in 18 months the government had managed to broker a deal with junior doctors. As of Monday, junior doctors decided to accept the new proposal, at almost half of the demanded 35% pay increase. Senior managers in hospitals are, however, concerned that unless extra money is sourced to pay for the increase, it could affect front-line care as less money will be available for services.

The news has frustrated those on the front-line and below junior doctor level who are having to manage with much less than the recently agreed pay increases. Nurses, midwives, paramedics and physios have received just over half the pay increase that junior doctors won. Prof Nicola Ranger, the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) leader said that she “does not begrudge doctors their pay rise” but that they ask for the same treatment from the government as junior doctors have received. The RCN will now be consulting its members to determine next steps. Industrial action has not been ruled out.

The deal affects only those in the junior doctor pay grade and could be just the start of a fresh push for pay demands. Prof Len Shackleton, an economist at the University of Buckingham and research fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs, stressed that other unions will look at this deal for inspiration to push for more, either in the NHS or across the public sector. GPs have already called for a work-to-rule as a result of insufficient funding for general practice. Additionally, there are already reports that junior doctors will look for more in 12 months when the new government’s honeymoon period is over

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