The results of the 2024 general election have been announced, with Labour emerging as the clear winners with an overall majority of 176 seats. However, this victory was largely due to a decline in Conservative support, with the party expected to secure just 121 seats, making it their worst result in history in terms of seats. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems have secured their highest tally since 1923, with a total of 71 seats. However, Labour’s total of 412 seats was slightly lower than Tony Blair’s 1997 victory.
One of the primary reasons for Labour’s success was a significant increase in support in Scotland, with a 17 point increase resulting in a total of 412 seats. However, the party’s vote actually fell by four points in Wales, while in England it rose by just half a point compared to 2019. The Conservatives, on the other hand, saw support fall most heavily in seats they were trying to defend, particularly in areas where they won over 50% of the vote in 2019, where they saw a decline of 29 points.
Reform UK emerged as a key factor in the election, with Labour supporters willing to vote tactically against Conservative incumbents in an effort to secure a Labour victory. This strategy, combined with a significant decline in support for the Conservative party in Leave-voting areas, resulted in Reform UK winning a number of seats and costing the Conservative party a significant number of votes. However, this did not translate into many seats for Reform UK themselves, who won just four seats, including Nigel Farage in Clacton.
The Greens also enjoyed success in the election, achieving their best ever performance and securing four seats. This was achieved by targeting a handful of key seats and concentrating efforts in areas with a high proportion of graduates. However, Labour did lose four seats in areas with large Muslim populations to independent candidates, and turnout was down compared to recent elections, falling to just 60%.
Overall, while Labour emerged as clear winners of the 2024 general election, much of their success was due to a decline in Conservative support and tactical voting from supporters of other parties. The election also saw the emergence of new parties and independent candidates, but ultimately it was Labour who claimed a decisive victory
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