On his second stint as leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), John Swinney is set to take on the role of Scotland’s seventh first minister. This comes 20 years after he resigned from the party leadership following three electoral setbacks. Swinney has held senior positions in the Scottish government and was the deputy first minister under Nicola Sturgeon’s tenure. As a key figure in the SNP’s time in power, he cannot disassociate himself from the controversies and policy setbacks over the years, which may be among the reasons he didn’t seek the elevation to first minister earlier.
However, Swinney’s persuasion to take on these responsibilities stems from a sense of duty to a divided party under pressure from what appears to be a Labour revival. A formal power-sharing deal with the Greens has been ditched by his predecessor, and Swinney intends to lead a minority administration and will need to win the support of other parties vote by vote to pass legislation. Swinney will have to address significant budget pressures, long waits for many NHS patients, and a sense of decline in some areas of education, raising concerns.
While there is no clear pathway to Scottish independence, which remains the SNP’s ultimate goal, Swinney has made it clear that he will keep arguing for independence, leaving him open to attack from pro-UK parties that he is pursuing a nationalist obsession. He may have to keep it on the agenda to help motivate his party’s core support in an election year. As things stand, the SNP faces a risk of losing a significant number of seats to Labour, which could mean Swinney’s time in charge may be short.
The police are still investigating the SNP’s finances after charging the party’s former chief executive, Peter Murrell, with embezzlement, which needs to be dealt with. Swinney has no power to clear the cloud Operation Branchform has cast over his party; he has to allow the police and prosecutors to make their own decisions in their own time. Nonetheless, one of his significant tasks will involve a reshuffle, with the former finance secretary, Kate Forbes, already promised a senior job after coming in second in last year’s leadership contest.
Beneath the surface, significant political tensions are likely to remain in the party. However, Swinney’s second term as SNP leader, however long it lasts, may be particularly notable for having deferred if not completely averted a significant contest for control of the party and the direction that it takes
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