The latest round of local, mayoral, and police and crime commissioner elections in England and Wales have resulted in several key takeaways. Labour has gained over 140 council seats, taking control of seven councils, including key areas such as Milton Keynes and Nuneaton, a traditional bellwether seat at general elections. There is a 9% average swing so far from the Tories since 2021, the last time most seats were contested. That victory was in line with national opinion polls, which suggest Sir Keir Starmer’s party is heading for a general election victory.
The Conservative Party has taken a hit in this election, having lost about half the seats it is defending, and as such, increasing internal pressure on Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. They have had over 330 councillors and control of six councils, including Basildon in Essex gaining an iconic status for the Tories under Margaret Thatcher. However, there was some respite in the Tees Valley, where incumbent Tory Ben Houchen won a third term as regional mayor. The party will also be hoping for a victory in the West Midlands mayoral race to give the party something positive to talk about in the coming days.
Labour has won a trio of newly-created regional mayor roles, continuing its recent successes in this area in recent years. Although the victory in the North East was widely expected, it will be particularly pleased with its victory in the East Midlands, expected to be a key battleground at the general election. Its York & North Yorkshire win also provided the party with a PR coup, as the region contains Rishi Sunak’s constituency. A further seven mayoral results are expected on Saturday, including in London, where Sadiq Khan is trying to secure a third term against Tory opponent Susan Hall.
Labour suffered some heavy losses in wards with a large number of Muslim voters, in a sign its stance on the Israel-Gaza war is affecting its vote in those areas. On average, the party’s vote is down 11% compared to last year in wards where more than one in 10 residents identify as Muslim. But there is some evidence the biggest drops in support are largely confined to wards where the party’s support was already very strong. The party will be waiting to study further data from other seats with a high Muslim population as it comes in.
The Greens and the Liberal Democrats have both made gains in the local elections so far. The Liberal Democrats have made modest gains of 55 councillors so far, although some of its target seats are still to declare. The Greens have gained 40 seats so far and are hoping to become the largest party in Bristol, a city containing one of its top target seats at the general election. They have increased their vote share in areas with a high Muslim population, as well in areas with lots of students
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