Westminster is set to fast-track legislation extending the deadline for the next Northern Ireland assembly election in order to give the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) more time to decide whether it is going to return to power-sharing at Stormont. The new deadline of 8 February is expected to give the party enough time to make up its mind if further talks take place in an attempt to restart devolved government in the province. If the DUP does not return to government, Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris will be obliged to call an election and may implement additional governance arrangements that include an increased role for London.
A new bill, the Northern Ireland Executive Formation Bill, is anticipated to be passed, with numerous stages, in the House of Commons and House of Lords today. The government hopes that the bill will achieve Royal Assent before the end of the week. About three hours have been assigned to MPs for debating the bill in the Commons, with Mr Heaton-Harris opening Wednesday’s debate. It is understood that the bill is designed to permit the reformation of the Stormont Executive, with Heaton-Harris stating that “significant progress” had been made towards the restoration of devolution and that the bill “with the constrained timescales will be sufficient”.
Since February 2022, the DUP has been obstructing devolved government in Northern Ireland due to the party’s concerns about post-Brexit trade regulations for the province. Calling the new legislation a recognition that an agreement has not been attained, the party has said that it wants to “successfully finalise all the remaining outstanding issues”. The Social Democratic and Labour party has proposed two amendments to the bill, one of which would change the process for electing a Stormont Speaker to a majority vote, removing the ability of one party to wield a veto, and the second which seeks to require the Northern Ireland secretary to introduce a pay increase for public sector employees so as to end ongoing strikes. It is unlikely, however, that the amendments will be picked up by the Commons Speaker.
If the DUP fails to return to Stormont within the two-week window provided by the new legislation, there may be mounting pressure on the Northern Ireland Secretary to clarify how the province is to be governed. The prolonged absence of a Stormont Executive may lead to an increased presence of hybrid government or light-touch direct rule. Chris Heaton-Harris may then face the prospect of a failure he was seeking to avoid, making this a last throw of the dice by the government
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