Official figures have revealed that the UK’s economy grew by 0.3% in November, a stronger rebound than anticipated, after having contracted in October. The trend was driven by the services sector, particularly retail boosted by Black Friday activity. The economy is now at risk of meeting the criteria for a technical recession, with analysts suggesting it will be “a close call” as to whether it will manage to steer clear of two or more consecutive quarters of contraction.
The Office for National Statistics warned that the longer-term pattern was one of “an economy that has shown little growth over the last year”. The ONS figures showed that in the three months to November, the economy shrank by 0.2%. The potential for a contraction between October and December could yet take the UK into a recession.
Economist Ruth Gregory, from Capital Economics, suggested that November’s rebound meant that the UK had probably missed a recession in 2023. However, she expected zero growth for the final quarter of the year. Samuel Tombs, from Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the risk of economic decline was “a coin toss”.
Jeremy Hunter, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, claimed the growth in November was “welcome news”, but that it would be slowed “as we bring inflation back to its 2% target”
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